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Forecast

January 9, 2023 afternoon report

Trudy Hibler

January 9, 2023

As of the time of this writing, flooding was occurring in several areas, most notably in Fresno and Madera Counties. Areas like North Fork, Bass Lake, and Auberry are reporting ongoing flooding. Flooding is also occurring in western Fresno County also in parts of Monterey, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties. Radar is currently solid green from one end of the growing area to the other. Every single reporting station for the valley floor was reporting light to moderate rain as of 12:30. It is so often the case that the best dynamics of Pacific storms move into northern California. Not this time, though. One of the most intense storms we’ve seen in recent years is making a beeline across the Pacific right into central California.  Embedded thunderstorms have also been reported in Fresno and Madera Counties. Not only is this an extremely wet system, it is a long duration storm meaning it will be late Tuesday or even Tuesday night before we put this one to bed. Ten to twelve feet of new snow is projected for elevations above 8,000 peak. I just shake my head. It appears Wednesday and Thursday will be dry. I’m even hedging my bet for those two days as a couple of models are tugging the rain line further south than earlier depicted. With that in mind I’m going to put a slight chance of showers in the forecast for those two days, mainly from Fresno County north. The next system to arrive will do so this weekend. This storm will take an entirely different path, moving from the waters off of Oregon southeastward into southern California. Even though the best dynamics will be to our south, we should pick up some rain. Following the weekend event, yet another storm is showing up for Tuesday of next week. as mentioned in yesterday’s report, we may begin to dry out starting on the 20th. This is the second day in a row the GFS model has been pointing in that direction.

 

Forecast: Rain tonight, locally heavy at times, through Tuesday.  A chance of embedded thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. showers Tuesday night. A slight chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday. Increasing cloudiness again Friday night. Showers likely Saturday through Sunday. A slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 53/58/40/55 Reedley 54/58/41/56 Dinuba 52/57/39/55
Porterville 54/58/40/56 Lindsay 52/57/39/57 Delano 54/59/41/57
Bakersfield 54/59/42/57 Taft 51/58/42/56 Arvin 54/59/42/56
Lamont 53/58/42/56 Pixley 52/57/40/57 Tulare 52/58/39/56
Woodlake 53/57/39/56 Hanford 53/57/40/56 Orosi 52/57/39/56

 

Wind Discussion: Gusty southeast winds will continue through Tuesday morning at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 35 mph are possible mainly from Fresno  County north. Winds will decrease to 8 to 15 mph late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will be variable to 12 mph.

 

Rain: I haven’t had time yet to tally up storm totals but this info will be on tomorrow morning’s report. Suffice to say we’re doing very, very well. Rain will continue tonight through Tuesday, locally heavy at tines. Another .75 to 1.50 could easily fall just about anywhere on the valley floor. Embedded thunderstorms are undoubted possible tonight and Tuesday. Locations that do find themselves in the path of a thunderstorm will experience a short duration of very heavy rainfall. Showers will continue Tuesday night. I am going to introduce a small chance of showers from mainly Fresno County north Wednesday through Thursday. Thursday night through Friday night will be dry with showers spreading over the valley again Saturday and quite possibly into Sunday with a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday. another, fairly weak system, is projected for Tuesday. We may begin to see the end of this onslaught around the 20th.

 

Frost:  Expect above average conditions.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above freezing tonight.

 

Next report: January 10 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.