January 14, 2023
If we can just progress through Monday evening, this prolonged period of wet weather we’’ve been experiencing will finally come to an end. Two separate storm systems will move through central California. The first system will encompass today through Sunday morning. The second, Sunday night and well into Monday. this first storm, which has already spread rain over much of the region, is the strongest and promises to be a generous precipitation producer. It is milder. In fact, going into this system, we have a freezing level of 6,700 feet. This will drop down to 5,500 feet tonight and Sunday. The second is somewhat weaker and colder. Snow levels Sunday night and Monday will drop down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. High resolution models are indicating heavy precipitation for the entire region. Anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain from now through Monday evening will drench the foothills, 2 to 4 inches or the water equivalent over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Precipitation estimates for the valley floor are: .59 at Bakersfield, 1.32 at Porterville, and 1.69 at Fresno. Rain later this morning and during the afternoon will become locally heavy at times. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible later this afternoon and through tonight. Where thunderstorms occur, locally heavier amounts are anticipated. Then finally, by Monday evening, the chance of rain will begin to fade. The next system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska, but instead of running from west to east the way so many of these storms have, this one will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin. In the meantime, a ridge of upper level high pressure will build from southwest to northeast over the eastern Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. This will set up a northerly flow between the off shore high and the low over the Great Basin. In fact, as the week wears on, the high will build as far north as the Gulf of Alaska, setting up a chilly pattern. beginning Wednesday morning, local frost is possible, although nothing serious is anticipated. Colder locations will fall into the lower 30s. areas of night and morning valley fog will also begin to become a challenge due to a water logged valley floor and a weak warm air inversion. Models going all the way out to the 27th are now showing a dry pattern with below average temperatures through the entire period.
Forecast: Rain today. Showers tonight with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Rain likely again Sunday through Sunday evening. Rain likely for a time Monday through Monday night. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and at times through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 57/45/54/44/55 | Reedley 57/45/55/46/56 | Dinuba 56/46/55/45/55 |
| Porterville 58/46/56/47/56 | Lindsay 57/45/54/45/56 | Delano 58/44/55/46/57 |
| Bakersfield 59/47/53/47/56 | Taft 59/46/53/46/55 | Arvin 58/45/54/47/57 |
| Lamont 57/46/56/46/56 | Pixley 56/45/54/45/55 | Tulare 56/45/54/46/55 |
| Woodlake 57/56/55/47/56 | Hanford 57/47/56/47/56 | Orosi 57/45/55/46/55 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 40/55 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 35/52 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 35/53 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 35/53 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 34/54 |
Two Week Outlook: January 19 through January 25: For the first time in about three weeks,, this model is portraying a dry weather pattern. a cut off low will be over southern California with a pool of relatively cold air so look for below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with gusts to 25 mph possible, mainly along the west side from Fresno County north. Winds Tuesday will generally be no more than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Rain has already spread over much of the valley. Precipitation estimates indicate that much of the valley could potentially record more than 1 inch of rain between the two storms. The valley portion of Kern County is projected to tally up between .33 and .75. These two storms we’ll be dealing with through tomorrow night is the final hurrah in the endless series of storms since the first of the year. Tuesday will be dry with dry weather continuing the remainder of the week. models going out through the 27th are also indicating a prolonged period of dry weather.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/50%, Delano 95%51%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .26, Parlier, .24, Arvin .47, Porterville .23, Delano .28 Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53 Arvin 54, Porterville 51, Delano 53 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/37 Record Temperatures: 68/22
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1237 -38 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 8.25, 201% of average, Monthly 3.00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.53, 149% of average, Monthly: 1.18
Average Temperature This Month 52.7 +6.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 795, Arvin 667 Belridge 740, Shafter 764, Stratford 771, Delano 789, Porterville 768 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 5:06, hours of daylight, 9:55.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 54 / 0.14 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 54 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 53 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 52 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 53 / 0.04 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 69 / 51 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 65 / 51 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 63 / 48 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.01 12.76 226 8.21 146 5.64 13.45
MODESTO 0.03 11.06 224 8.15 165 4.94 12.27
MERCED 0.08 10.89 237 5.82 127 4.59 11.80
MADERA 0.01 M M M M 4.07 10.79
FRESNO T 8.25 197 5.21 124 4.19 10.99
HANFORD 0.01 6.07 190 4.60 144 3.20 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.53 146 3.55 147 2.41 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.02 429 4.50 241 1.87 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.32 52 M M 0.62 2.20
SALINAS 0.04 7.76 153 6.11 121 5.07 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.08 11.12 242 7.12 155 4.60 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.01 11.61 237 6.10 124 4.90 13.32
Nest report: January 14 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.