January 15, 2023
Yesterday’s storm dumped generally anywhere from .25 over parts of Kern County to .67-.75 over parts of Fresno County and generally .33 to .50 over parts of Kings and Tulare Counties. We’re currently in a lull between waves of low pressure. The next and the last Pacific storm is just off shore and will spread moderate to heavy rain over all of central California later today through Monday. this system has an atmospheric river of air moving into the southwest portion of the low with a trail of subtropical moisture coming in from north of Hawaii.. this system has the potential of dropping more than an inch of rain on the valley floor, two to four inches in the foothills, and two to feet of new snow over the higher elevations. There has been so much snow over the high Sierra that I’ve lost track of how many feet are now on the ground, but take my word for it, it is extremely deep. The back side of this next monster will clear the Sierra Monday evening, putting an end to the constant precipitation events we’ve observed…and endured…for the first half of January. The next low will move out of the Gulf of Alaska through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin. Light snow showers will spread down the Sierra late Wednesday into Thursday with no precip on the valley floor. In fact, the remainder of this week will be dry. Medium range models show a large high building northward into the Gulf of Alaska with possibly a cut off low over southern California. This will generate a northerly flow over California, resulting in a relatively cold pattern for central California. In fact, local frost should occur as early as Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The triumphant return of fog will also be a forecast challenge beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It’s a shame we’ve seen so much rain so fast, but on the plus side, with tremendous amounts of snow in the high Sierra, and rapidly filling reservoirs, this pattern has also been a huge blessing.
Forecast: A chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. Rain spreading over the valley this evening. Rain tonight through Monday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Rain continuing Monday night, ending before midnight. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday night through Sunday. There will be a slight chance of showers Wednesday night near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Expect patchy fog from Wednesday morning on.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/47/52/39/52 | Reedley 55/47/53/40/51 | Dinuba 54/46/52/38/52 |
| Porterville 56/46/53/40/51 | Lindsay 55/45/52/39/52 | Delano 56/46/53/40/51 |
| Bakersfield 55/47/53/43/50 | Taft 55/47/52/41/48 | Arvin 56/47/52/41/50 |
| Lamont 55/48/53/41/51 | Pixley 54/45/53/40/50 | Tulare 54/46/52/38/50 |
| Woodlake 54/45/52/39/51 | Hanford 54/47/52/40//51 | Orosi 54/45/52/38/51 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 33/50 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 33/52 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 32/51 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 31/51 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 31/52 |
Two Week Outlook: January 22 through January 28: For the first time in about three weeks, this model is portraying a dry weather pattern. a cut off low will be over southern California with a pool of relatively cold air so look for below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable today to around 12 mph. Winds tonight will be out of the south to southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Stronger gusts are possible, mainly along the west side. Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be mainly out of the north/northwest at around 5 to 12 mph.
Rain Discussion: Currently, we’re between two waves of low pressure. There is one more storm positioned off shore and it will be the last in this endless line of precipitation events. This system has high potential for dropping high amounts of rain on the valley floor. More than an inch could easily be measured along the east side from Porterville north. Anywhere from a third from a quarter of an inch is possible along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties with a quarter to a third of an inch over Kern County. For today, there’s just a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rain, locally heavy at times, will spread over the valley this evening, continuing tonight and Monday. the rain will come to an end by midnight Monday with dry weather Tuesday and all the way through next Sunday. The only exception is a chance of a few showers near the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Wednesday night.
Frost Discussion: After Monday, we will enter a period of below average temperatures. A northerly flow will develop as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds a ridge into the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Canada while closed low develops over southern California and Arizona. With colder and drier air spreading southward, widespread low to mid 30s are possible beginning Tuesday night and continuing through the remainder of the week. by Thursday morning, upper 20s will be possible in low lying frost pockets. The same could be said for Friday through Monday. with abundant moisture on the valley floor, fog will no doubt enter the picture and will become more widespread as the week wears on.
Lows Tonight:
Actual humidity values for Porterville 95%/87%, Delano 96%76%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .23, Parlier, .19, Arvin .42, Porterville .19, Delano .24 Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53 Arvin 55, Porterville 51, Delano 53 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/38 Record Temperatures: 75/21
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1248 -45 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 8.94, 210% of average, Monthly 3.69
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.69, 151% of average, Monthly: 1.34
Average Temperature This Month 52.7 +6.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 795, Arvin 667 Belridge 740, Shafter 771, Stratford 771, Delano 789, Porterville 768 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:10 Sunset, 5:07, hours of daylight, 9:56.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 57 / 46 / 0.70 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 47 / 0.33 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 56 / 48 / 0.69 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 57 / 46 / 0.50 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 57 / 44 / 0.41 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 58 / 50 / 0.16 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 55 / 44 / 0.36 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 56 / 48 / 0.41 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.01 12.76 226 8.21 146 5.64 13.45
MODESTO 0.03 11.06 224 8.15 165 4.94 12.27
MERCED 0.08 10.89 237 5.82 127 4.59 11.80
MADERA 0.01 M M M M 4.07 10.79
FRESNO T 8.25 197 5.21 124 4.19 10.99
HANFORD 0.01 6.07 190 4.60 144 3.20 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.53 146 3.55 147 2.41 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.02 429 4.50 241 1.87 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.32 52 M M 0.62 2.20
SALINAS 0.04 7.76 153 6.11 121 5.07 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.08 11.12 242 7.12 155 4.60 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.01 11.61 237 6.10 124 4.90 13.32
Nest report: January 16 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.