January 27, 2023
Temperatures will easily eclipse the 60 degree mark this afternoon as a persistent ridge of upper level high pressure is off the Pacific coast with the edge of this high remaining over California. Even though nights have been chilly, the air aloft has been reasonably mild for late January. The freezing level over both Vandenburg AFB and Oakland early this morning was a fairly respectable 11,500 feet.
The real changes continue to evolve to our north. A largely dry low pressure system is now centered over southern British Columbia with a pool of modified arctic air behind it. This low will drop over northern California by Sunday morning then will center near Santa Maria by Monday morning. Even though this feature is not an active weather producer, in fact model information gives the chance of rain at Porterville at only 28% Sunday, it will spread snow showers down the Sierra Nevada. This is one of these peculiar low pressure systems that raises the stakes for precipitation just has high over the Kern County mountains and deserts as it does the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. By Tuesday night this feature will have dropped down to northern Baja.
The headline from this event will come in the form of possible overnight low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. As we mentioned this morning, blended model information gives a 50% to 75% chance of 28 degree or lower temps at most valley locations Monday and Tuesday mornings and possibly Wednesday. So far, I don’t look at this as a damaging event, but I do see this as a “use caution” event for planning purposes.
The plus side of all this continues to be in the form of a trough of low pressure which will move through Friday, meaning the duration of this cold weather episode will be short-lived.
Longer range models for next weekend are showing an additional chance of showers, perhaps next Saturday and Sunday, however it’s too early to do any forecasting with certainty.
Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog tonight. Mostly clear with some high clouds Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night. Variable cloudiness Sunday with a minimal chance of scattered light showers. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon to Monday evening. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Monday night. Mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday with patchy morning fog. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday leading to a chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 33/60/36/51 | Reedley 33/59/36/50 | Dinuba 32/59/34/52 |
| Porterville 32/59/35/51 | Lindsay 31/58/34/52 | Delano 33/60/35/51 |
| Bakersfield 38/58/39/51 | Taft 40/58/40/50 | Arvin 35/60/35/51 |
| Lamont 34/59/35/51 | Pixley 34/60/35/50 | Tulare 31/58/34/51 |
| Woodlake 32/59/35/52 | Hanford 33/58/35/52 | Orosi 32/58/34/52 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph through Saturday night with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday along the west side will be out of the north/northwest at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph,, mainly along the I-5 corridor. Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph elsewhere.
Rain: Dry conditions will continue through at least Saturday night. Blended model information still shows a 28% shot at measurable rain Sunday for Porterville. The chance at Porterville may be a bit higher than most locations as it sits at the base of the foothills. At any rate, the chance of measurable rain at any location in the valley will be minor and if rain does occur, no more than a few hundredths is anticipated. Dry conditions will return by late Sunday night. We may see another chance of generally light rain around Friday of next week as a weak trough of low pressure moves through. The pattern beyond that also appears to be a bit unsettled, however model discrepancy leaves that in very much a chance situation.
Frost: Lows Saturday morning will modify perhaps a degree or two with widespread low to mid 30s and just isolated locations down to 29 or 30 or so. Most locations will be at least slightly above freezing Sunday morning because of increased cloud cover with even a chance of a few light showers.
The air mass behind this little system is quite cold. Some models still show temperatures Monday morning down into the 25 to 27 degree range which is slightly higher than previous model runs but it’s still getting down there. There hasn’t really been a strong surge on models for a truly alarming forecast. So, I will lean low in this forecast, the way I typically do this far out, and will leave it at that for now. One thing is a given and that’s the fact that we will have cold temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings with a number of locations in the mid 20s.
Conditions for Wednesday morning remain speculative as they depend on a trough of low pressure which will be moving through Friday. That same system will rapidly turn northerly winds aloft to westerly, effectively making the cold snap short lived.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 28 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.