January 30, 2023
Light showers are still occurring over the Kern County portion of the valley and light snow showers are falling over the Kern County mountains. The center of circulation of the cold upper level low is now over the Channel Islands. Precipitation is pretty much over the remainder of California. The low will continue to head southward before it settles over the Channel Islands. From there, it will track eastward. The next challenge will be two cold nights, but fortunately not critically cold. Currently, it appears upper 20s and lower 30s are likely tonight and again Tuesday night. Models have been wavering in their estimations of the southern limit of precipitation from a trough of low pressure which will move through the valley Friday. Model estimates have been ranging from Merced to Kern County. If you average out this morning’s information, measurable rain may fall as far south as Fresno County. Another system, this one in the form of a closed low, will move through Sunday. However, this feature appears weak and may be confined mainly to northern California.
Forecast: The risk of showers will continue for a time this morning over Kern County with partly cloudy skies elsewhere today. Becoming mostly clear tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday leading to a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north Friday and Friday night. Party cloudy Saturday and Saturday night. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 53/29/54/30/60 | reedley 52/30/54/30/61 | Dinuba 51/29/54/30/61 |
| Porterville 52/29/55/30/61 | Lindsay 52/28/54/29/61 | Delano 51/31/54/31/61 |
| Bakersfield 52/34/54/34/61 | Taft 49/35/52/36/58 | Arvin 53/31/55/32/61 |
| Lamont 52/31/55/32/61 | Pixley 53/29/54/30/60 | Tulare 51/28/53/29/60 |
| Woodlake 52/29/53/31/60 | Hanford 53/28/54/30/60 | Orosi 52/29/54/30/61 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 33/60 |
Friday
Chance of showers 38/63 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 37/61 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 40/62 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/60 |
Two Week Outlook: February 6 through February 12: This model favors wet weather for central California, mainly weak disturbances resulting in wet weather from time to time with below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
..
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph and variable in nature through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The showers, which are still occurring over Kern County, will end during the next couple of hours. Rainfall amounts from the current system range from nothing to .27 at Madera. Most locations measured trace amounts to a few hundredths. Expect dry weather this afternoon through Thursday. The next chance of measurable rain will occur Friday as a weak trough moves through. It appears this will be mainly a Fresno County northward affair, and even from Merced to Fresno County, generally no more than .10 is anticipated. There will also be a slight chance of light showers Sunday from a weak closed low. Medium range models generally appear dry for next week.
Frost Discussion: The pool of coldest air aloft is now just off the southern California coast and is continuing to drift southward towards Baja. This means the coldest air aloft will be well south of our region tonight. Even so, with dewpoints in the upper 30s, and generally clear skies, most locations will fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. the coldest river bottom type of locations could potentially fall into the 27 to 28 degree range with most flat terrain ranging from 29 to 32. Hillsides will be slightly above freezing. The inversion tonight will be moderate with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 3 to 6 degrees warmer. Temperatures Wednesday morning will be nearly the same, maybe a degree warmer. By Thursday, the flow aloft will have become westerly ahead of a trough of low pressure off shore with most locations in the low to mid 30s. increased cloud cover Friday ahead of that trough will keep temperatures above freezing. Safe conditions will also prevail over the weekend with above freezing conditions for much of next week with a dome of high pressure overhead.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/72%, Delano 95%59%. Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .46, Parlier, .45, Arvin .49, Porterville .44, Delano .47 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 45, Delano 47 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 58/39 Record Temperatures: 77/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1520 -38 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 178% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 134% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 49.6 +2.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 973, Arvin 830 Belridge 914, Shafter 943, Stratford 954, Delano 969, Porterville 937 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:03 Sunset, 5:22, hours of daylight, 10:19
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 55 / 37 / 0.07 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 51 / 41 / 0.27 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 53 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 57 / 42 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 58 / 43 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 56 / 45 / 0.28 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 54 / 35 / T /
:
.END
:
: Unofficial Weather Stations
:
: Approximate high temperature yesterday
: Approximate low temperature from midnight through 4 am PST/5 am PDT
: 24-hour precipitation ending at 4 am PST/5 am PDT
:
: Max Min 24-Hr Snow
: Id Name Elev Temp Temp Pcpn Depth
:
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 54 / 41 / 0.02 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 50 / 40 / 0.14 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON T 15.47 221 8.21 117 6.99 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 13.43 215 8.15 131 6.24 12.27
MERCED 0.07 12.91 223 5.85 101 5.79 11.80
MADERA 0.27 M M 1.52 30 5.12 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 175 5.21 99 5.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.80 174 4.61 118 3.91 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.99 133 3.56 119 3.00 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 357 4.50 188 2.40 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 48 M M 0.82 2.20
SALINAS 0.07 8.97 139 6.11 95 6.44 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.01 12.76 213 7.34 123 5.98 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 13.33 213 6.26 100 6.27 13.32
Nest report: January 30 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.