February 11, 2023
The center of circulation of a cold upper low is just south of San Francisco this morning. The only shower activity in central California is over the Sierra Nevada where the counter clockwise circulation around the low has the showers running from south to north along the range. As the low drifts south during the day, light rain and snow showers will begin to affect the Kern County mountains and a sprinkle or two is possible over the valley floor. Measurable rain, however, is very unlikely. The low will move into southern California tonight then to a position over northern Baja by early Monday morning. The pool of air associated with the low is much cooler. Temperatures will drop from the lower 70s yesterday to the mid 50s today. A second, somewhat larger system is dropping southward from western Canada and will drop into the Great Basin Tuesday. Central California will be on the western flank of the low with the jet stream right over California. Gusty winds can be expected late Tuesday into Wednesday. Frost or freeze conditions will be likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings as a pipeline of modified arctic air streams southward between high pressure off shore and a low over the Desert Southwest at midweek. Details are in the frost discussion below. Dry weather will follow with a warming trend as high pressure builds in from the west towards the weekend.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight. A slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers near the foothills. Clearing Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday. partly cloudy Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday with cold nights.
Temperatures:
| Madera 55/33/58/34/63 | Reedley 58/34/59/34/64 | Dinuba 56/34/59/34/63 |
| Porterville 54/33/57/35/63 | Lindsay 54/32/57/34/63 | Delano 58/35/58/34/64 |
| Bakersfield 54/37/56/38/63 | Taft 54/39/55/40/63 | Arvin 58/35/58/36/63 |
| Lamont 57/34/60/35/65 | Pixley 55/34/57/35/63 | Tulare 54/32/56/36/63 |
| Woodlake 57/33/60/35/64 | Hanford 57/35/60/35/63 | Orosi 56/32/58/34/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Variable clouds 34/63 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 28/52 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/53 |
Friday
Mostly clear 32/59 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 34/60 |
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22: This model shows energy moving up into southern California from lower latitudes for possible above average precipitation. temperatures for this time frame are projected to be somewhat below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, decreasing by this evening. Winds tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than a7 mph with periods of calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with possible stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion: As expected, light showers are spreading down the Sierra Nevada with even a few light radar returns over the Coast Range. The valley floor will largely remain dry with this event, although I wouldn’t completely rule out sprinkles or isolated showers through this evening. Dry weather will return tonight through Monday night. Another moisture starved system will drive into the interior west Tuesday with light snow showers falling over the Sierra Nevada. For now, anything measurable appears unlikely on the valley floor. dry weather will continue for the remainder of the week.
Frost Discussion: A cooler air mass in association with a low located just south of San Francisco at this hour is overspreading the valley. This system is not unbearably cold. However, lows the next couple of nights will track back into the low to mid 30s. The very coldest terrain could potentially drop to 28 to 30 tonight with most other locations falling into the low to mid 30s. similar conditions can be expected Monday and Tuesday mornings.
A very cold low pressure system is currently heading south from western Canada and will drop into the interior west Tuesday. In the meantime, a sharp ridge of high pressure will build northward along the west coast, generating a north/northwest flow. Gusty winds will move down the valley Tuesday and Tuesday night, lowering dew points. Blended model information has Porterville at 29 degrees both Wednesday and Thursday. This could put frost pockets down to 26 to 27 degrees, possibly even slightly colder in those true cold frog ponds. This far out, it would appear widespread upper 20s and lower 30s are likely Wednesday and Thursday with some modification Friday. Keep in mind also, upsloping cloud cover, wind conditions, mixing and other parameters will play their respective roles. Expect changes in the forecast as we approach the time frame.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmin
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/41%, Delano 97%35%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .55, Parlier, .52, Arvin .59, Porterville .54, Delano .53 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 50, Arvin 52, Porterville 48, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 60/40 Record Temperatures: 77/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1716 -35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, 170% of average, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, 136% of average, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 49.3 +0.1Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:! Parlier 1084, Arvin 929 Belridge 1015, Shafter 1042, Stratford 1061, Delano 1075, Porterville 1044 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:51 Sunset, 5:36,
hours of daylight, 10:43
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 198 8.21 103 7.97 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.54 190 8.15 114 7.12 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.46 204 5.85 89 6.61 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 88 1.52 26 5.86 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 164 5.21 87 5.98 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 158 4.61 104 4.42 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 131 3.56 103 3.44 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 321 4.50 165 2.72 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 39 M M 1.01 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.13 124 6.11 83 7.39 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.94 187 7.34 106 6.92 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 186 6.26 85 7.33 13.32
Nest report: February 11 afternoon
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