Looking at the midday satellite image, there are two items of interest. One is a piece of energy and associated cloud cover. The second is an area of upslope clouds banking up against the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. Strong, gusty winds are blowing down the valley. At last observation, Fresno had gusts to 29 mph, Hanford 33, and Lemoore 31. As anticipated, these winds are driving down dew points which have sunk into the 20s at most locations. A rather robust trough of low pressure is now moving down the Great Basin. This is generating strong winds over southern California’s deserts where several locations are reporting gusts eclipsing 50 mph. The next challenge will come tonight as a complex set of parameters play out. This is discussed below in the frost summary. Upper level high pressure will follow this system Thursday and Friday to begin moderating this brief cold wave. Even so, it will be the weekend before overnight lights climb above the freezing level at most locations. Models this afternoon maintain the trend of the next low pressure system dropping just far enough off shore to result in dry weather for the weekend. One of the new medium range models is showing a fairly strong low affecting California about a week from tomorrow. This is the first model run to indicate this change so we’ll continue with a dry forecast until evidence warrants a change.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy this evening. Partly to mostly clear after midnight. Mostly clear Wednesday through Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 28/54/28/60 | Reedley 29/55/28/60 | Dinuba 27/54/27/60 |
| Porterville 27/54/27/59 | Lindsay 27/55/28/60 | Delano 30/53/29/61 |
| Bakersfield 34/53/31/61 | Taft 30/53/30/61 | Arvin 34/53/30/61 |
| Lamont 33/53/29/61 | Pixley 28/54/29/60 | Tulare 27/54/28/59 |
| Woodlake 28/53/28/60 | Hanford 28/54/29/61 | Orosi 28/53/28/60 |
Wind Discussion: gusty winds will continue over most of the valley through this evening with gusts as high as 40 mph along the west side. Winds along eastern Tulare County will be generally less than 20 mph. Winds will decrease to around 5 to 12 mph after midnight then become variable to 10 mph during the predawn hours. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be generally less than 10 mph and variable in nature.
Rain: The closest possible time frame for a return to rain in the valley is Wednesday of next week and so far that’s just showing up on one model run.
Frost: All the various parameters are coming into play for a chilly night ahead. As expected, dewpoints are now in the 20s. The only exception was 31 at Porterville. Air temperatures are only in the low to mid 50s. we’re closely watching two batches of cloud cover. The first is a batch over north/central California which will move overhead during the first part of the night. The second is upslope clouds which continue to regenerate against the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Add to that are strong gusty winds blowing down the valley, low dew points will play their role, and then there’s mixing of the atmosphere between jet stream energy aloft and the valley floor. Add all these up and you come up with a night I anticipate will be highly variable from place to place, ranging from 25 to 27 to as high as the mid to upper 30s at locations that remain mostly cloudy or have strong wind conditions. The best course of action is to err on the side of caution and lean low with tonight’s numbers. For Thursday morning, it looks like most locations jwill be a degree or two colder. Most locations Friday morning will be in the low to mid 30s with coldest locations 28 to 29. Temperatures Friday will moderate back into the low to mid 30s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea pot dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
21 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmin
28 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
28 |
Metter
28 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 15 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.