February 15, 2023
By the standards of mid February, it is very cold out there this afternoon. The noon observation at Bakersfield showed a temperature of just 47, 49 at Porterville, and 48 at Visalia. Most locations further north in the valley were in the 50 degree range. Dew points have crept up a bit from yesterday at this time. Even so, conditions will be much more stable tonight with mostly clear skies and little to no wind. This will allow for strong radiational cooling with another night of subfreezing temperatures. This is all mapped out below in the frost summary. overall, the pattern is the cold low responsible for all the winds yesterday and the subfreezing temperatures is already over New Mexico. This has allowed upper level high pressure to extend from California to western Canada, keeping the northerly flow aloft going. The freezing level taken earlier today was only at 3,300 feet. As the high continues to build Thursday, daytime highs will creep up to near the 60 degree mark. The next feature of note is a trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest which will drop southward off the California coast and then morph into a closed low. This feature will move southward too far off shore to threaten precipitation. the low will eventually just move into northern Baja and weaken over the weekend. Medium range models for next week are looking more encouraging for the possibility of rain. For the third day in a row, the GFS model is indicating a large low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California beginning Wednesday, hopefully setting up an active pattern.
Forecast: Mostly clear and cold tonight. Mostly clear Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Tuesday. Increasing clouds Tuesday night. Chance of showers Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 29/60/31/61 | Reedley 28/61/30/62 | Dinuba 27/61/30/60 |
| Porterville 28/61/30/61 | Lindsay 27/60/29/61 | Delano 29/61/31/61 |
| Bakersfield 31/61/37/62 | Taft 34/59/39/60 | Arvin 29/61/31/63 |
| Lamont 30/61/31/62 | Pixley 28/60/31/61 | Tulare 27/60/30/62 |
| Woodlake 29/61/31/62 | Hanford 28/62/31/61 | Orosi 28/62/31/62 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable to no more than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday night. Models are becoming more suggestive with time that a wet weather pattern will begin Wednesday of next week. models show a significant low over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with the jet stream possibly flanked from west to east into California. It’s time to up the ante a bit for the forecast for a chance of showers beginning Wednesday and possibly lasting a few days thereafter.
Frost: We will be operating under a different set of rules tonight. Last night’s conditions were chaotic with wind, in and out cloud cover. Tonight will be clear with little to no wind. dew points have crept up into the upper 20s to the lower 30s at most locations. Even so, with a more stable environment out there, lows tonight will likely be similar to last night. Last night, we observed widespread mid to upper 20s. Tonight, coldest low lying areas will drop down to 25 to 27. Most flat terrain locations will drop down to 27 to 30 with hillsides remaining in the 30s as the inversion improves. Temperatures at 34 feet will generally be 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations. Temperatures in the very coldest unprotected low spots will drop to 32 degrees for 6 hours plus and 28 degrees for 3 hours plus. Lows Friday morning will drop into the upper 20s in the coldest frost pockets with lower 30s as a general rule elsewhere. Lows Sunday will generally be in the low to mid 30s with above freezing temperatures thereafter.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmin
28 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
28 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 16 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.