February 17, 2023
Low pressure is located roughly 500 miles west of the central coast this afternoon. The circulation around the low is moving high clouds from south to north across California. Soundings above Lemoore and Fresno peg the base of the clouds at 20,000 feet above Fresno and 23,000 above Lemoore. Despite the high clouds, temperatures are 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. They range from 55 at Merced to 60 at Bakersfield. Dew points, however, are still quite low, ranging from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. so even with high cloud cover tonight, another frost night will be at hand as the clouds may be too thin to slow the radiational cooling process. There’s a great deal of uncertainty about the pattern from Wednesday on. What is concrete is it will turn cold and unsettled. For now, it appears precipitation from this event will be light with very low snow levels. In fact, by Thursday and Friday a northeast flow will be evident, pumping modified arctic air into California. Most models are indicating temperatures struggling into the low 50s from Wednesday on, so any clear night after Wednesday will lead to more frost/freeze issues. I’m going to back off a bit on the chance for rain and use the wording of chance of light showers Wednesday through Friday of next week. models show the snow level down to 1,000 feet, meaning even the lower foothills may get some icing.
Forecast: Variable high, thin clouds tonight. Clearing Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night leading to a chance of light showers Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 31/64/33/66 | Reedley 30/65/33/67 | Dinuba 30/63/33/65 |
| Porterville 31/65/33/67 | Lindsay 29/62/31/65 | Delano 31/64/33/67 |
| Bakersfield 34/63/36/64 | Taft 37/63/41/64 | Arvin 34/64/35/67 |
| Lamont 33/64/35/66 | Pixley 31/63/34/65 | Tulare 29/62/31/65 |
| Woodlake 31/64/33/66 | Hanford 31/65/33/67 | Orosi 30/64/33/66 |
Wind Discussion: Wind will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph through early this evening. Winds tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than 12 mph late afternoon and generally at or less than 5 mph during the night and early morning hours.
Rain: latest models this afternoon have backed off on the amount of rain and even the chance for measurable precipitation beginning Wednesday. The very cold trough we’ve been discussing will orient southwest to northeast over the western states and western Canada which will pump very cold air into California. Snow levels will possibly be down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. The fact that this system is largely taking an overland pass will rob its potential for a significant precipitation event with mainly just light showers over the valley floor anytime from Wednesday through Friday. I believe it’s appropriate to use the word chance in this forecast as the moisture field around the low appears to be limited.
Frost: A veil of high thin clouds remains this afternoon. Soundings peg the base of the eovercast at 20,000 feet and above. Like last night, the main question is whether or not they’re dense enough to really slow the radiational process. Due to lack of rainfall in recent weeks, and the recent invasion of modified arctic air, dew points remain low and are in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. My feeling is these clouds will be too thin to slow the radiational cooling process. This will allow coldest locations to dip below freezing again tonight. Those cold spots out there will dip into the upper 20s with most other locations in the lower 30s. the inversion will again be decent tonight with temperatures at 34 feet generally 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Most locations Sunday morning will drop into the low to mid 30s with less cloud cover with most locations ranging in the 30s Monday morning.
The pattern for mid week and beyond is very cold, especially for this late in the season. Currently it appears winds and cloud cover will keep most nights in the 30s. However, any night from Wednesday on that has mostly clear skies and/or little to no wind will result in below freezing temperatures. There is the potential for a freeze sandwiched in there. I’m hoping this pattern results in enough cloud cover and wind energy to keep conditions safe. For now, it looks rather dicey. Models are not providing enough insight to really have much confidence in temperature forecasting for later next week.
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmin
32 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
Next report: February 18 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.