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Forecast

February 20, 2023 afternoon report

February 20, 2023

Upper level high pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California is being suppressed to the southwest, farther out over the ocean. This is allowing a very cold low pressure system in the northeast Gulf of Alaska to begin sliding southward into the Pacific Northwest Monday. models show this low stretching from the Yukon Territory to southern California on Tuesday. Snow will spread down the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains with the snow level down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. This is an unusual event as models show a great deal of snow all the way down into the lower foothills. Possibly more than a foot in places like Oakhurst and Mariposa. Lift will play a central role in this event, leaving just light amounts of precipitation on the valley floor. phase two of this event will move in Thursday and Friday. Models show a low developing over British Columbia which will slide southward, centering somewhere near San Francisco Friday. This is a favorable position for heavy snow in the mountains and widespread shower activity over the valley floor. the low will track southward over the weekend, keeping a chance of showers in the forecast through Saturday night. The low will finally move inland through southern California Sunday, resulting in a brief respite from the cold, unsettled weather. Storm number three shows up in the Gulf of Alaska by Monday of next week. like its predecessors, it will dig a low into central California with more precipitation the first half of next week. during this entire time frame, temperatures will be well below average with very low snow levels in the surrounding mountains.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight increasing clouds Tuesday. Showers spreading southward Tuesday night along with strong, gusty winds. A chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers likely Thursday through Saturday with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness again Sunday night with a chance of showers Monday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 35/68/33/52 Reedley 36/69/34/50 Dinuba 33/67/34/51
Porterville 33/69/35/50 Lindsay 33/68/34/51 Delano 36/69/34/52
Bakersfield 41/69/38/50 Taft 44/68/38/49 Arvin 36/70/36/52
Lamont 36/69/35/51 Pixley 35/68/34/51 Tulare 33/66/33/51
Woodlake 34/67/34/52 Hanford 36/68/34/51 Orosi 33/66/34/51

 

Wind Discussion: Winds through tonight will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature. by late Tuesday afternoon, winds will begin to increase out of the west, increasing to 15 to 30 mph. gusts to near 45 mph will be possible anywhere with the risk being highest among the west side. Gusts to 50 mph cannot be ruled out along the I=5 corridor. Winds will remain strong and gusty Tuesday night. There will be periods of winds in the 10 to 20 mph range Wednesday through Thursday with stronger gusts, especially near showers.

 

Rain: Showers will begin to spread over the valley,, reaching as far south as Merced County by Tuesday afternoon, spreading down the valley Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. From Tuesday night through Saturday, there will be at least some chance of showers. Heaviest precipitation from this two-fold event will likely come late Thursday into Saturday. thunderstorms will also be possible Thursday through Sunday afternoon. If these storms do develop, hail is a surety. Rainfall amounts between Tuesday night and early Thursday should range from .10 to .25 at most locations. The potential for more significant rain Thursday afternoon through Saturday is certainly there as a cold core low will be almost right overhead during that time frame. Sunday looks to be the only dry day before storm number three moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Monday through Tuesday of next week.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but near to just slightly above in the coldest locations. Tuesday will be the last mild day we’ll see for a while as winter comes roaring back. A cold front will move down the valley Tuesday evening with gusty winds and with a much colder air mass to follow. One advantage we have is that this is an active pattern, meaning that even though it’s a very cold air mass, the chance of cloud cover, wind conditions, and other parameters may keep lows in the lower 30s. However, I must emphasize that on any night from Wednesday on, where clouds disperse and winds die off, upper 20s and lower 30s would be likely with unprotected river bottom terrain possibly dropping into the mid 20s. The chance of this occurring is low, but with a very cold air mass, cloud cover is not a given on any night. Like in all cold weather events, we will approach each night’s forecast individually.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

Af

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

Af

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

Af

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

Af

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

Af

Root Creek

Af

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

af`

Jasmin

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

 

Next report: February 21 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.