February 21, 2023
The leading edge of an arctic low has moved into the Pacific Northwest. Before this air mass turns our spring back into winter, we will sneak in one more pleasant afternoon before at least a week’s worth of winter weather pummels California. Currently, the freezing level above Oakland is at 10,700 feet. That will begin to drop like a rock later this afternoon and this evening a the arctic boundary rapidly moves down the valley. Strong differences in pressure will begin to set up between off shore northern California and rapidly falling pressure over southern California and the Desert Southwest. This will generate very strong winds throughout the valley later this afternoon and continuing tonight. Wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph are not out of the realm of possibility. By Wednesday morning, an arctic trough will extend from western Canada into southern California. Snow may reach sea level over northern California and down to near 1,000 feet over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. A few flakes may reach the valley floor if there are any showers in your vicinity. This event will have very unusual characteristics. Models continue to indicate as much as a foot or more of snow could fall over places like Oakhurst and Coarsegold with2 to3 feet above the 3,000 foot elevation. This entire pattern will phase in with two events. The first will be later today and tonight with mainly just light showers on the valley floor. a second, stronger low will develop right along the coast of British Columbia then drop rapidly southward to a position off of San Francisco by Thursday morning. This storm will hug the coastline on its way south Friday morning, finally moving into southern California Saturday.. this system has the potential of dropping higher amounts of precipitation. showers will begin to wind down by Saturday evening with Sunday ending up dry. Models have been consistent on the development of a third system in the Gulf of Alaska by early next week. it’s projected to plunge into central California by Monday for another round of showers Monday through Wednesday of next week. by Thursday, upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west, turning the winds aloft into a westerly direction and leading us into a dry pattern with a warming trend.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Light showers spreading down the valley this evening along with strong, gusty winds. A chance of showers tonight through Wednesday night. Rain likely at times Thursday through Friday night. A chance of showers Saturday, ending Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of showers Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 68/33/50/31/51 | Reedley 69/34/51/33/51 | Dinuba 66/32/51/32/51 |
| Porterville 69/34/50/32/50 | Lindsay 68/33/51/32/52 | Delano 69/34/51/33/52 |
| Bakersfield 68/37/49/35/50 | Taft 69/37/49/35/50 | Arvin 70/34/52/33/53 |
| Lamont 69/35/51/33/52 | Pixley 68/32/50/32/51 | Tulare 66/32/50/32/51 |
| Woodlake 68/33/52/33/52 | Hanford 68/34/51/33/52 | Orosi 66/33/51/32/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Showers likely 34/51 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 33/52 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 32/50 |
Monday
Chance of showers 34/53 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 36/57 |
Two Week Outlook: February 28 through March 6: Of the entire lower 48, there is one area to have the highest possibility of above average rainfall and that area is central California. There is also one area with the greatest risk of below average temperatures. You guess it. It’s central California.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds this morning will be light. Later this afternoon and evening, strong, gusty winds out of the northwest will increase to 15 to 30 mph. gusts to 45 mph are possible, mainly along the west side but just about anywhere. Winds later tonight will decrease to 15 to 20 mph at times. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph are possible.
Rain Discussion: Light showers will spread down the valley this evening with that chance continuing through Wednesday night. The first phase of this event will be light with amounts of no more than .10 to .25 at any given location. phase 2 has greater potential. From Thursday through Saturday, around .25 to .33 is certainly possible with locally more. Dry weather will briefly return Sunday. The third system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into central California Monday with showers Monday into Wednesday. It appears next Thursday will be the beginning of at least a temporary dry pattern as high pressure builds in from the west.
Frost Discussion. Most locations will be above freezing tonight, but not necessarily all. Scattered light showers and gusty winds will make up part of our weather tonight. Even on cloudy nights, this air mass will lower temperatures into the low to mid 30s. For tonight’s forecast, I’ll go ahead and forecast lower 30s in the colder locations. In wind sheltered locations which do happen to clear, upper 20s will be possible, however that scenario is unlikely. Low to mid 30s can be expected Thursday and Friday mornings with a chance of upper 20s possible if skies clear, though that’s not likely. The same rule of thumb will continue through the weekend. Any night with several hours of mostly clear skies and light winds could potentially dip down into the upper 20s with a slight chance of mid 20s in river bottoms. However, there’s a good chance there will be plenty of cloud cover on any given night, maintaining temperatures in the low to mid 30s. It appears the end of this pattern will not occur until about a week from Thursday when a westerly flow takes over, cutting off the flow of arctic air into California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
af` |
Jasmin
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 99%/38%, Delano 90%32%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.. Kern: Low to mid 30s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .73, Parlier, .70, Arvin 77, Porterville .66, Delano .69 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 49, Arvin 52, Porterville NA, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41 Record Temperatures: 77/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1884 -6 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 48.6 -1.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1185, Arvin 1008, Belridge 1100, Shafter 1130, Stratford 1166, Delano 1167, Porterville 1141 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:39, sunset, 5:46. hours of daylight, 11:06
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 62 / 43 / 0.00 /
SEAS. % LY %
AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 175 8.21 91 8.99 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.56 169 8.15 102 8.01 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.47 180 5.85 78 7.50 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 77 1.52 23 6.66 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 146 5.21 77 6.75 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 140 4.61 92 5.01 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 115 3.56 91 3.91 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 283 4.50 146 3.09 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 32 M M 1.22 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.27 111 6.11 73 8.35 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.07 165 7.34 93 7.90 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 160 6.26 74 8.48 13.32
Next report: February 21 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.