February 20, 2023
Finally, that upper low off the northern Baja coastline is beginning to shift eastward. In the meantime, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific is shifting westward further out over the Pacific Ocean. This is allowing a low to form in the northeast Gulf of Alaska which will slide rapidly due south into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and into northern and central California Tuesday night and Wednesday. A multitude of elements will play out, ranging from heavy snow in the foothills and mountains to cold showers over the valley floor. this event will unfold in two parts. The first part I just described. The second will be a second very cold low which will be just west of San Francisco Thursday and Thursday night. During this entire event snow will fall down to 1,000 to2,000 feet. Some of these latest models are indicating some very unusual parameters for snow. As much as 1 to 2 feet of snow could accumulate in the lower foothills and 2 to3 feet above 3,,000 to 4,000 feet. Active weather will continue through Friday with a possible brief break over the weekend. A third storm will move out of the Gulf early next week for an increasing chance of precipitation. even though snow levels will be low with this system, as well, they won’t be quite as low as the first two events. For later next week and beyond. Models are still favoring energy moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the western states for a continuation of below average temperatures and above average precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear with high clouds mixed in today. Partly cloudy tonight. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. A chance of showers, windy, and colder Tuesday night. A chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers likely Thursday and Friday. A chance of showers Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. A chance of showers Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 68/38/68/34/51 | Reedley 69/39/68/33/51 | Dinuba 67/37/68/34/51` |
| Porterville 69//36/68/33/52 | Lindsay 67/37/67/33/50 | Delano 69/39/69/35/50 |
| Bakersfield 69/42/70/38/49 | Taft 67/44/70/38/49 | Arvin 70/38/69/35/52 |
| Lamont 69/39/68/36/52 | Pixley 68/37/68/34/51 | Tulare 66/36/67/33/51 |
| Woodlake 66/36/67/33/50 | Hanford 69/38/68/34/52 | Orosi 66/36/68//33/50 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Showers likely 33/50 |
Friday
Showers likely 34/52 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 31/54 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 33/51 |
Monday
Chance of showers 34/54 |
Two Week Outlook: February 27 through March 5: Of the entire lower 48, there is one area to have the highest possibility of above average rainfall and that area is central California. There is also one area with the greatest risk of below average temperatures. You guess it. It’s central California.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through tonight will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature. by late Tuesday afternoon, winds will begin to increase out of the west, increasing to 15 to 30 mph. gusts to near 45 mph will be possible anywhere with the risk being highest among the west side. Gusts to 50 mph cannot be ruled out along the I=5 corridor. Winds will remain strong and gusty Tuesday night. There will be periods of winds in the 10 to 20 mph range Wednesday through Thursday with stronger gusts, especially near showers.
Rain Discussion: the chance of light showers will begin to pick up by Tuesday afternoon or evening as the first part of this event unfolds. A strong cold front will move down the valley late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Following the front and its strong gusty winds will be a pool of cold and very unstable air which will result in a chance of showers any time from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Amounts the valley floor will generally be light with around a tenth to a quarter of an inch between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. The second phase will move in Thursday with a greater possibility of more substantial precipitation, perhaps another ¼ to 1/3 of an inch between Thursday and Friday night. A temporary dry slot will open up over the weekend before a third storm arrives from the Gulf of Alaska. The chance of rain will start on Monday and continue on and off though Tuesday. Even models going out through March 7 are indicating a wet weather pattern.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing tonight but near to slightly above in the coldest locations. Daytime highs will push the 70 degree mark both today and Tuesday. Plus, a southerly flow will begin ahead of what will become a prolonged period of cold and active weather. The cold air will begin to pour into the valley late Tuesday and Tuesday night in the form of gusty northwesterly winds. From Wednesday through Friday, there will be a chance of showers at any given time, however the air mass associated with this activity is very cold and any night with several hours of clear skies and reduced winds could easily drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s with a slight chance of a pocket out there somewhere dropping into the lower 20s. there is also an excellent chance of abundant cloud cover and wind to keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s each night. Over the weekend, between storms, it will be possible to see clearing skies which could lead to some frost concerns. However, as fast as all this is evolving, we’ll go with temperatures in the 30s while closely studying the pattern.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
Af |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
af` |
Jasmin
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 97%/32%, Delano 83%28%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.. Kern: Low to mid 30s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .70, Parlier, .69, Arvin 72, Porterville .65, Delano .67 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 49, Arvin 51, Porterville 46, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 62/41 Record Temperatures: 79/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1856 -6 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 48.3 -1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1172, Arvin 998, Belridge 1087, Shafter 1117, Stratford 1153, Delano 1154, Porterville 1128 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:41, sunset, 5:44. hours of daylight, 11:01
Actual humidity values for Porterville 97%/38%, Delano 92%32%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.. Kern: Low to mid 30s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .72, Parlier, .70, Arvin 76, Porterville .66, Delano .69 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 49, Arvin 51, Porterville NA, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41 Record Temperatures: 80/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1871 -6 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 48.4 -1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1185, Arvin 1008, Belridge 1100, Shafter 1130, Stratford 1166, Delano 1167, Porterville 1141 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:40, sunset, 5:45. hours of daylight, 11:03
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 62 / 43 / 0.00 /
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 177 8.21 92 8.89 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.56 171 8.15 103 7.93 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.47 182 5.85 79 7.41 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 78 1.52 23 6.58 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 147 5.21 78 6.67 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 141 4.61 93 4.95 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 117 3.56 92 3.86 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 285 4.50 147 3.06 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 33 M M 1.20 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.27 112 6.11 74 8.25 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.07 168 7.34 94 7.80 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 163 6.26 75 8.37 13.3
Next report: February 21 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.