February 22, 2023
A massive winter storm now covers the western half of the US. The portion of the trough over California is moisture starved. Doppler radar is indicating showers along the California coast, but they’re off shore, moving from north to south. There’s another area of precipitation over the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The first part of this event will be largely dry for the valley, although we cannot eliminate the chance of light showers at any time. Most of the action though, will be over the mountain areas. The snow level will range between 1,000 and 2,000 feet. The first portion of this trough will sink into the Desert Southwest today while storm number 2 picks up steam over the Pacific Northwest then slides southward to a position near the Bay Area Thursday. This system has more moisture involved and will spread precipitation over the entire growing area Thursday. The low is projected to move slowly southward, hugging the coast and spreading bands of showers in from time to time through Saturday. Temperatures will be far below average as there is modified arctic air associated with the low. The system will finally move inland Sunday, possibly giving us a brief respite from the unsettled conditions. However, the next low will follow a similar path, arriving Monday for an increasing chance of showers, especially during the afternoon. Most models show the risk of showers continuing into Wednesday of next week then show a high beginning to build in from the eastern Pacific, resulting in a westerly flow. This will cut off the arctic air with a warming trend which should last a few days. All of the longer range models, however, still indicate a big trough will affect the west with colder than average temperatures and unsettled weather from time to time during the first week of March
Forecast: variable cloudiness with a risk of light showers through tonight. A good chance of showers Thursday through Saturday. A chance of showers Saturday night through early Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and night. Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 50/33/53/34/52 | Reedley 52/32/51/35/53 | Dinuba 50/32/51/35/52 |
| Porterville 51/33/51/35/52 | Lindsay 50/32/52/36/52 | Delano 51/35/51/36/53 |
| Bakersfield 50/35/51/38/53 | Taft 49/38/50/38/51 | Arvin 52/35/53/37/51 |
| Lamont 51/35/552/36/52 | Pixley 51/32/51/35/53 | Tulare 50/31/51/35/52 |
| Woodlake 52/33/53/36/51 | Hanford 52/33/52/36/52 | Orosi 51/32/53/36/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Showers likely 34/53 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 31/50 |
Monday
Chance of showers 35/53 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 35/55 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 36/56 |
Two Week Outlook: February 28 through March 6: Of the entire lower 48, there is one area to have the highest possibility of above average rainfall and that area is central California. There is also one area with the greatest risk of below average temperatures. You guess it. It’s central California.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: There will continue to be steep differences in pressure from the northern California coast to the Desert Southwest.. gusty winds out of the northwest will continue at times at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts through Saturday with periods of somewhat lighter winds.
Rain Discussion: As expected, so far most of the precipitation has been confined to the mountain areas. A very cold trough of low pressure will cause showers to continue over the mountains tonight with snow down into the foothills. There will be a chance of light showers over the valley floor at any given time, however amounts are expected to be .10 or less. the second, more potent, system is gaining strength over the Pacific Northwest and off shore. It will roll down the coast to a position just off San Francisco Thursday. The circulation pattern around the low will fling bands of showers inland from time to time Thursday through Saturday. Precipitation amounts during that time frame will be more significant with possibly around .25 to .33 at most locations with localized heavier amounts. Showers will begin tapering off late Saturday night with potentially a dry day Sunday. The third winter storm in the series will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Monday and Tuesday with an increasing chance of showers. Currently,, Wednesday appears to be the turnaround day for at least a few days of dry weather as upper level high pressure begins to push in from the west.
Frost Discussion. Wind and cloud conditions maintained temperatures in the mid to upper 30s overnight. Most locations tonight will remain in the low to mid 30s. If we receive enough cloud cover, conditions will be a bit milder. However, we cannot rule out several hours of clear skies and little or no wind, so there is the potential for upper 20s and lower 30s in some locations with a slight chance of mid 20s in river bottom locations. Friday morning should be a bit milder and remain in the mid to upper 30s due to increasing cloudiness and precipitation. clouds should also do the trick Saturday morning, keeping temperatures in the 30s. Sunday may be a bit trickier as showers come to an end and cloud cover decreases. Upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible. However if enough cloud cover remains behind the exiting storm system, readings will range in the 30s. For now, it appears Monday through Wednesday will be above freezing due to more active weather coming in with a warming trend after Wednesday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 99%/38%, Delano 90%32%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.. Kern: Low to mid 30s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .72, Parlier, .70, Arvin 82, Porterville .69, Delano .71 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 49, Arvin 51, Porterville NA, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41 Record Temperatures: 78/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1896 -7 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 48.7 -1.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1208, Arvin 1029, Belridge 1119, Shafter 1151, Stratford 1188, Delano 1188, Porterville 1161 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:38, sunset, 5:47. hours of daylight, 11:08
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 55 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / M / M / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
SEAS. % LY %
AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 173 8.21 90 9.08 13.45
MODESTO T 13.56 167 8.15 101 8.10 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.47 177 5.85 77 7.59 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 76 1.52 23 6.74 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 144 5.21 76 6.82 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 138 4.61 91 5.07 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 114 3.56 90 3.95 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 279 4.50 144 3.13 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 31 M M 1.24 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.27 110 6.11 72 8.44 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.07 164 7.34 92 7.99 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 159 6.26 73 8.58 13.32
Next report: February 23 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.