February 21, 2023
Light rain and snow showers have spread over the Mount Shasta/Siskiyou region and northwest California as a very cold low stretches from British Columbia to near the California/Oregon border. This storm will quickly dig southward this afternoon and tonight, spreading snow showers down the Sierra Nevada with a chance of light showers over the valley floor beginning this evening. As the cold front races southward this evening, pressure will fall over southern California and the Desert Southwest. Couple that with abundant wind energy aloft and you have the recipe for strong winds throughout central California. Winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph would not be a surprise on the valley floor, especially along the west side. As very cold air settles into the area, the chance of light showers will continue through Wednesday night. Snow will fall down to unusually low elevations, possibly down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet or so over surrounding foothills. Even the Coast Range should receive some frosting during the coldest part of the night. The second phase of all this should arrive Thursday as the next cold low rapidly develops along the British Columbia coast and drops southward to a position near the Bay Area Thursday. This disturbance has a greater potential of dropping more significant precipitation amounts as the low hugs the coast. The bottom line is there will be a chance of rain any day this week. the only day that appears dry over the next 9 or 10 days is this coming Sunday. By Monday, a third low will be following a similar path, spreading showers over central California Monday and Tuesday. Models still show a milder, dryer pattern setting up about a week from Thursday as upper level high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness tonight with a chance of light showers along with strong, gusty, northwesterly winds. The risk of light showers will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night.. showers likely Thursday into Saturday morning, ending Saturday evening. Partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. A chance of showers Monday through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
Madera 33/50/32/51 | Reedley 33/51/33/52 | Dinuba 32/52/32/51 |
Porterville 34/52/32/52 | Lindsay 33/52/32/51 | Delano 34/52/33/52 |
Bakersfield 37/50/36/50 | Taft 37/49/35/50 | Arvin 34/51/33/51 |
Lamont 33/52/34/51 | Pixley 33/51/32/51 | Tulare 32/50/32/51 |
Woodlake 33/51/33/52 | Hanford 34/52/33/52 | Orosi 32/51/32/52 |
Wind Discussion: This afternoon and evening, strong, gusty winds out of the northwest will increase to 15 to 30 mph. gusts to 45 mph are possible, mainly along the west side but just about anywhere. Winds later tonight will decrease to 15 to 20 mph at times. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph are possible.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, the only precipitation in California was over the Mount Shasta/Siskiyou region and the northwest coastal areas. The main dynamics of the first phase of this storm will begin moving overhead tonight. Snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains with a chance of light showers over the valley any time from tonight through Wednesday night. Amounts will be quite light during this phase, generally no more than .10 to .25 of an inch. The second low has a more significant moisture shield and will spread showers down the valley from Thursday well into Saturday. This system will be a coastal hugger so the risk for more significant precipitation is higher, perhaps up to .33 in places. Snow down to very low elevations will be the main headline of this entire event with heavy snow not only in the Sierra Nevada, but also over the Kern County mountains and even the Coast Range. We will receive one dry day Sunday before the next low follows a similar path, spreading more showers over the area Monday and Tuesday.
Frost: Much colder air will surge down the valley tonight with most locations chilling into the low to mid 30s. Tonight will be characterized by cloud cover and strong, gusty winds, especially during the first part of the night. We are entering into an active and very cold pattern which will be with us through at least a week from Wednesday. Any night during this entire period with mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will have the potential to drop temperatures into the upper 20s with a slight chance of a few river bottom type locations dipping down into the mid 20s. Most nights, however, will have plenty of cloud cover and a chance of showers, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 30s. It does not appear we will move out of this pattern until a week from Wednesday or Thursday when a westerly flow will break through, cutting off the cold air from the north.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
af` |
Jasmin
Af |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
Next report: February 22 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.