February 23, 2023
Active weather continues over central California at this hour. Over the valley floor, showers are widely scattered with widespread snow up and down the Sierra Nevada. Storm number 2 is now centered just off the coast of northwest Oregon. This is a coastal hugger and as the low continues to intensify, it will pick up an abundant amount of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, moving it from southwest to northeast initially into northern California. Precipitation will spread into central and southern California later this evening. The center of circulation by Friday morning will be just northwest of the Golden Gate. Steep differences in pressure will be manifest late today through Friday between the low just to our northwest and higher pressure over southern California and the Desert Southwest. This will generate strong, gusty, southeast winds up the valley with the potential for high winds in the south valley in the typical trouble spots like the base of the Grapevine. Blended model information this afternoon continues to indicate the potential for impressive amounts of rainfall in the south valley. This model indicated potentially 1.42 in Bakersfield and 1.99 in Porterville, which would be quite a feat. Other models are following suit, indicating very significant amounts of rain on the valley floor and incredible amounts of snow along the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. Snow will also accumulate in some areas along the Coast Range. By Friday night, the low will be centered just off the central coast then just west of Vandenburg Saturday morning. The low will finally move through southern California Sunday. We may get a brief dry time slot Sunday, especially the afternoon through the night, before the next cold trough of low pressure digs south from the Gulf of Alaska and into California Monday afternoon through Wednesday for another prolonged period of precipitation. a few days of dry weather will finally begin later next week as upper level high pressure builds in from the west.
Forecast: Scattered light showers likely through this evening. Rain later this evening through Saturday morning, possibly heavy at times. A chance of showers Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Rain likely Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 37/53/34/48 | Reedley 38/52/35/48 | Dinuba 36/51/35/48 |
| Porterville 37/53/34/49 | Lindsay 36/54/34/47 | Delano 38/54/36/47 |
| Bakersfield 38/55/37/47 | Taft 39/55/37/47 | Arvin 38/55/35/47 |
| Lamont 38/54/35/49 | Pixley 36/53/35/47 | Tulare 35/52/34/46 |
| Woodlake 36/53/35/47 | Hanford 37/52/35/48 | Orosi 35/53/33/47 |
Wind Discussion: Steep differences in pressure between an intense low off the northern California coast and stronger pressure over southern California and the Desert Southwest will potentially spawn strong, gusty winds up the valley later tonight through Friday. Winds in the 15 to 20 mph range out of the southeast with localized gusts to 40 mph are possible, It’s also likely we’ll see another downslope wind event in the south valley with gusts to near 60 mph possible at places like the bottom of the Grapevine, Wheeler Ridge, and other typical windy spots where the valley meets the mountains. These winds will die off later Friday night as the low moves further south with winds generally in the 8 to 15 mph range Saturday with generally light winds Saturday and Sunday.
Rain: Blended model information and other quantitative precipitation estimates for this upcoming storm event this evening through Saturday morning are most impressive. That same blended model indicates 1.99 is possible in Porterville with 1.42 in usually dusty Bakersfield. These are only model estimates but these models have done well in previous storms this winter. Amounts of snow in the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains are rather mind boggling with 5 to 6 feet of new snow possible in the southern Sierra Nevada and 3 to 4 feet above 4,000 feet in the Kern County mountains. If this comes to fruition, this will be quite a rare event. Heaviest rain will taper off into showers Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday appears to be dry, however showers will still be possible Sunday morning, mainly in Kern County. The next trough will dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California Monday afternoon through Wednesday. This system will not be as intense, however .25 to .50 would not be a surprise for the two-and-a-half-day event. Dry weather will finally arrive Wednesday night and Thursday, lasting for a couple of days thereafter.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing both Friday and Saturday mornings. Even with the rain and cloud cover, temperatures will still chill into the mid to upper 30s both nights. At least areas of below freezing temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings, depending on cloud activity. Where skies clear, lows could potentially drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. expect above freezing temperatures again Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Upper 20s and lower 30s will again be possible Thursday morning as the back side of the last storm system moves out.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
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Delano
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North Bakersfield
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Orosi
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| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
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Sanger River Bottom
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| Root creek
Af |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
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| Arvin
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Lamont
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Plainview
Af |
Mettler
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| Edison
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Maricopa
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Holland Creek
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Tivy Valley
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| Kite Road South
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Kite Road North
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Next report: February 24 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.