February 24, 2023 afternoon report

February 24, 2023

Doppler radar is showing a solid area of precipitation stretching from roughly San Simeon on the north to Orange County on the south. Heavy precipitation extends from near Santa Maria northeastward through much of the central San Joaquin Valley. Another swath of heavy rain is currently moving into the Los Angeles basin and surrounding mountains. Some locations in the valley have already recorded more than an inch of rain. I’ve also received reports of 6 to 12 inches of snow along the Coast Range to about 1,400 feet. A complex low is centered just west of Monterey with a secondary surface low just west of Santa Rosa. A warm front is moving through the southern San Joaquin Valley into the southern Sierra Nevada with a cold front extending from near Fresno southwestward to near Santa Maria then out to sea. This complex storm is inching very slowy southward and will continue to pour out the rain and snow through early morning. Heaviest precipitation later today and tonight will be in southern California where as much as an inch of rain per hour could be recorded along southwest facing mountain ranges ringing the LA basin up through Ventura County. By Saturday night, the center of circulation will be near LAX then will drag across southern California Sunday. By the time this system is in the history books,, it will prove to be a gold mine snow producer for the Sierra Nevada and all the mountains of southern California. The weather will quiet down Sunday and will remain dry through roughly Monday morning. The next trough of low pressure will dig southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Monday afternoon with periods of rain lasting all the way through Wednesday of next week. it appears a ridge of high pressure will take over Wednesday through next weekend to allow California to dry out for a while. However, medium range models continue to trend towards another possible wet period beginning about March 6.

Forecast: Rain tonight and Saturday morning, locally heavy at times. Strong gusty winds in the south valley through this evening. Showers Saturday afternoon. A chance of showers Saturday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. Periods of rain Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night and Friday.

Temperatures:

Madera 36/50/33/53	Reedley 37/52/34/53	Dinuba 37/51/33/52
Porterville 37/49/34/51	Lindsay 36/49/33/51	Delano 38/49/36/52
Bakersfield 40/49/36/52	Taft 37/48/34/52	Arvin 39/48/36/52
Lamont 39/48/36/51	Pixley 37/48/34/53	Tulare 37/47/33/53
Woodlake 37/49//34/52	Hanford 38/51/34/53	Orosi 37/51/33/52

Wind Discussion: Winds have really cranked up over portions of the south valley. Just in the last hour, Meadows Field was reporting sustained winds of 35, gusting to 47. Not far away, Rancho Road was reporting gusts to 41 mph. most of the rest of the valley was reporting gusts between 20 and 30 mph. Steep differences in pressure will continue tonight for potentially strong winds in the south valley. some of these winds have been missing the valley floor as they blow downslope and blow right over the top of the valley several hundred feet up. Even so, the potential for strong gusts is there and will continue to be there into early Saturday morning. On Saturday, winds will be ut of the east to northeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Saturday night through Sunday night will be generally at or less than 15 mph. by Monday afternoon, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.

Rain: So far with this event, rainfall is divided into the haves and the have nots. There has been a significant rain shadow from the base of the Tehachapi north/northeast into southeastern Tulare County. In the meantime, the west side of the valley northward through Fresno and Madera Counties is getting soaked. For example, Kettleman Hills has recorded .90 since early this morning, Huron .69, Fresno .42, Visalia .40, Exeter .34, Lemoore 1,13, and Stratford .66. Meantime, Bakersfield has recorded .10. a swath of moisture laden air will continue to move from southwest to northeast across the valley tonight. Blended model information is still indicating copious amounts of rain will fall and hold onto the idea that the rain shadow will be overcome as the center of the low slowly changes position. By Saturday afternoon, the counterclockwise circulation around the storm will turn the winds out of the southeast, which is less favorable for heavy rain. The action will finally end from southwest to northeast Saturday night with a dry day north of Kern County Sunday. The entire area will be dry Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The next cold trough to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska will arrive Monday afternoon. several impulses will move through the trough, generating periods of rain from Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Thursday will be the start of at least 4 to 5 days of dry weather; however models have been trending towards another active pattern setting up about March 6.

Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight. Low to mid 30s are possible Sunday morning with a few upper 20s not out of the realm of possibility, mainly from Fresno County north. Monday morning’s temperatures will be determined by residual moisture from the current storm and possibly increasing clouds from the next system up stream for generally low to mid 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be above freezing due to clouds and showers. Upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible Thursday and Friday due to cold air moving in behind that week’s storm system.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

Next report: February 25 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.