February 24, 2023
Rain has spread over almost all of central California at this hour. The only exception is the extreme south valley where a rain shadow has developed. The center of circulation of a very intense low is located roughly 200 miles to the west/northwest of San Francisco. The circulation around the low is moving significant amounts of precipitation from southwest to northeast across the valley and will continue to do so for the next 12 to 14 hours or so. A steep difference in pressure now exists between off shore San Francisco and Nevada. The current altimeter reading at San Francisco is 29.95 inches of mercury while Las Vegas has a reading of 30.06. As a result, winds are gusting to between 45 and 50 mph at Merced, Modesto, Stockton and Sacramento. We may very well have high wind problems in the south valley, too, as the low tracks slowly southward along the central coast. By midday Saturday, the center of circulation wil be just west of Santa Maria, meaning abundant amounts of moisture will continue to stream inland over central California for much of Saturday. The latest models do seem to want to speed the system up as it tracks through southern California Sunday, finally bringing the rain to a halt in central California with the possible exception of Kern County which will be closer to the exiting low. With some luck, Sunday through Monday morning will be dry, however the next cold trough of low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Alaska and will begin spreading precipitation over central California Monday through Wednesday. This one I wouldn’t compare to the current system, however, another .25 to 50 is possible between Monday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Upper level high pressure will finally begin to build in from the west next Thursday for a period of dry weather. However, some medium range models indicate rain will move back to California around March 6
Forecast: Rain through Saturday morning, possibly heavy at times. Showers Saturday afternoon. Tapering off Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night but a chance of showers Sunday morning in Kern County. Showers returning Monday afternoon, continuing at times through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night and Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 53/40/54/36/52 | Reedley 54/40/54/36/52 | Dinuba 53/39/54/36/53 |
| Porterville 53/40/55/35/53 | Lindsay 54/39/54/35/52 | Delano 54/40/55/36/53 |
| Bakersfield 53/41//54/39/52 | Taft 52/40/54/39/52 | Arvin 53/40/54/37/53 |
| Lamont 54/40/55/37/53 | Pixley 52/39/54/36/52 | Tulare 52/39/54/35/52 |
| Woodlake 53/38/54/36/53 | Hanford 54/40/54/35/53 | Orosi 53/38/54/35/53 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Showers likely 37/52 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 28/52 |
Friday
Mostly clear 30/56 |
Saturday
Increasing clouds 34/57 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 37/58 |
Two Week Outlook: March 5 through March 11 This model is pointing to a cool northwesterly flow over California for a continuation of below average temperatures. The signature for rain is there, but not as strong as recent models.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be generally at or less than 12 mph and variable in nature. winds tonight and at times through Tuesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, especially near showers.
Rain Discussion: today will be the only quiet day we’ll see through mid week. showers from the next storm are already penetrating northern California. They will begin to move into central California this evening. Another cold trough from the Gulf of Alaska will be in place tonight through Wednesday morning, resulting in periods of showers from time to time. Precipitation estimates are fairly significant but nothing like its predecessor. If you average models out, you’d come up with somewhere between .50 and 1.00 inch of rain between tonight and Wednesday . quantitative precipitation estimates for the Sierra Nevada are again quite impressive with possibly 3 to5 inches of water equivalent during the three day period. Dry weather will return Wednesday night, lasting at least through Saturday. Models have been inconclusive on a pattern for Sunday into the following week, but are generally pointing to another active weather pattern.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through Wednesday. A fairly significant frost/freeze event is likely Thursday through Saturday morning. Very cold air diving in behind the upcoming storm will settle onto the valley floor Wednesday night for possibly widespread upper 20s and lower 30s. This far out, it does appear that temperatures as low as 26 are possible Thursday and Friday mornings. Lows over the weekend may be determined by the arrival time of the cloud cover from the next weather system which will bring a chance of rain back to the valley Sunday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 90%/51%, Delano 92%49%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .66, Parlier, .67, Arvin 75, Porterville .64, Delano .69 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 50, Arvin 51, Porterville 47, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 64/42 Record Temperatures: 79/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1919 +4 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 10.01, Monthly .81
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.57, Monthly: .35
Average Temperature This Month 48.4 -1.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1235, Arvin 1056, Belridge 1142, Shafter 1175, Stratford 1213, Delano 1213, Porterville 1187 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:35, sunset, 5:49. hours of daylight, 11:12
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 52 / 32 / T /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 52 / M / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 52 / 35 / 0.18 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 33 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 28 / 0.14 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 53 / 37 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 34 / 0.02 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 34 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 52 / 39 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 51 / M / M /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.02 15.77 170 8.21 89 9.26 13.45
MODESTO T 13.56 164 8.16 99 8.25 12.27
MERCED T 13.47 174 5.87 76 7.76 11.80
MADERA M 5.14 74 1.56 23 6.90 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 10.01 144 5.25 75 6.97 10.99
HANFORD T 7.00 135 4.78 92 5.18 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 4.57 113 3.67 91 4.04 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 274 4.50 141 3.19 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 30 M M 1.28 2.20
SALINAS 0.04 9.34 108 6.18 72 8.61 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.01 13.08 160 7.37 90 8.17 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.20 13.86 158 6.33 72 8.79 13.32
Next report: February 24 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.