February 27, 2023 afternoon report

February 27, 2023

The southern half of the valley is dry at this hour. However,, the next wave of precipitation is already advancing over the northern San Joaquin Valley and will move down the valley during the course of the late afternoon and evening. This is not the strongest in the series, but a good quarter inch of precipitation in many areas, if not more, is likely by the time the backside of this impulse moves off to the east Tuesday morning. The strongest of these impulses will move down the valley Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Precipitation estimates for this system are between one-half and one inch along the east side of the valley. Blended model information calculates .73 for Porterville, for example, with similar amounts up and down the east side of the valley.

Showers will begin to wind down Wednesday afternoon as cold air wraps around the back side of the low as it moves into the interior west. This will set the stage for widespread subfreezing weather Thursday and Friday mornings and possibly Saturday morning. A temporary ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Thursday through Friday night for a temporary respite from the active weather.

Models show yet another trough of low pressure moving southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and into at least the northern half of California during the second half of the weekend. For now,, this system doesn’t appear to be carrying a lot of juice, but will give another chance of light showers Sunday. Models show a trough of low pressure remaining from the Gulf of Alaska into California during the first half of next week for a continuation of active weather.

Forecast: Rain spreading southward during the mid to late afternoon. Rain tonight, especially before midnight. A chance of showers Tuesday. Rain likely Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy and cold Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday. Mostly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday with a chance of showers Sunday, mainly north of Kern County. A chance of light showers Sunday night through Monday.

Temperatures:

Madera 36/53/36/49	Reedley 37/52/36/50	Dinuba 35/52/35/49
Porterville 36/52/36/51	Lindsay 36/51/35/51	Delano 37/52/37/51
Bakersfield 39/53/38/48	Taft 38/52/38/49	Arvin 37/53/37/52
Lamont 36/52/36/51	Pixley 36/53/36/49	Tulare 35/52/35/49
Woodlake 36/52/36/51	Hanford 36/52/36/52	Orosi 35/51/36/51

Wind Discussion: Winds will continue to be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20 mph possible through Wednesday. Winds will die off Wednesday evening, becoming light after midnight. Winds Thursday and Friday will generally be less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

Rain: An area of precipitation is currently advancing over the northern San Joaquin Valley and will spread southward over the remainder of the valley through mid to late afternoon, continuing tonight mainly before midnight. Precipitation will decrease somewhat Tuesday morning then the next batch of precipitation will spread over the area Tuesday afternoon, continuing Tuesday night. The chance of rain will continue for a time Wednesday morning then taper off with dry weather later Wednesday afternoon and through at least Saturday. Rainfall amounts between now and the end of this event Wednesday afternoon along the east side of the valley will range between one-half and one inch. Along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties, generally between a quarter and a third of an inch is expected. Over the valley portion of Kern County, up to a quarter of an inch is possible.

Dry weather can be expected Wednesday night through Saturday. Models are still depicting a northeast to southwest trough of low pressure, extending from central Canada to northern California. Precipitation from this system looks pretty scant at this point as the main dynamics will be to our south. So a chance of light showers is how I’m going to go for Sunday with unsettled weather Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Frost: All locations will be above freezing Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Thursday and Friday mornings will potentially be a challenge as very cold air settles into the valley behind the exiting system. Coldest locations both mornings could drop as low as 26 in the coldest wind sheltered and river bottom locations with widespread temperatures of 28 to 30. Saturday morning is just a bit dicey. Some moderation will have taken place by then. It’s possible clouds ahead of the next advancing weather system may reach the valley by then. Sunday morning and beyond will be above freezing due to the next batch of active weather.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

Next report: February 28 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.