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Forecast

March 3, 2023 afternoon report

March 3, 2023

As of midday, temperatures were anywhere from 4 to 7 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Central California will remain on the eastern flank of weak high pressure off shore. The high will be suppressed further west over the ocean Saturday as yet another cold trough of low pressure digs southward from the Gulf of Alaska, spreading showers over northern California Saturday and into central California Saturday night and Sunday. This time around, the valley will be on the far southern flank of the low with the main dynamics being further north. Just light showers can be expected, mainly north of Kern County. The trough itself will center off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Monday through Wednesday, however the rain line is now projected to be further north into northern California beginning Monday. periodic light showers will affect the northern part of the state, but just variable amounts of cloud cover can be expected for central California. Models have done a complete turnabout on the possible pattern for Thursday into next weekend. Previous models had indicated there would be a moist westerly flow moving into California. The GFS model now is showing a sharp ridge of high pressure building along the coast all the way to the Gulf of Alaska with a cold trough of low pressure again digging into central California Thursday and Friday. This pattern would result in a chance of light showers Thursday and Friday, mainly over the mountains. More of a westerly flow will begin, but not until late in the weekend and well into next week. models are very inconsistent on projections for rain for the weekend and beyond, but at least a chance of precipitation seems plausible from time to time.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday morning. Increasing clouds Saturday afternoon. Light showers becoming likely Saturday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Showers likely Sunday through Sunday evening, mainly north of Kern County. Variable cloudiness later Sunday night through Wednesday night. Increasing clouds Thursday. A chance of showers late Thursday through Friday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 35/60/38/55 Reedley 36/61/37/54 Dinuba 34/59/37/54
Porterville 34/60/38/54 Lindsay 33/59/37/53 Delano 36/61/38/55
Bakerssfied 39/61/41/54 Taft 38/60/41/55 Arvin 34/60/38/55
Lamont 35/61/39/54 Pixley 36/59/38/53 Tulare 33/58/36/54
Woodlake 34/60/38/54 Hanford 36/60/38/55 Orosi 33/59/36/54

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph tonight and Saturday morning with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday night will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, especially near showers. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be generally less than 12 mph and variable in nature.

 

Rain: The next chance of showers will begin showing up Saturday night, mainly from Fresno County north, spreading south later Saturday night and Sunday and generally north of Kern County. Showers will taper off Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts from this event will be generally light, ranging from a few hundredths in the south valley to possibly as much as .25 in Merced County. The eastern side of Fresno County should pick up a tenth or two with generally no more than .15 along the west side. The rain line will progress further north Monday through Wednesday night for a rare period of dry weather. Some models this afternoon have done an about face regarding the period Thursday through Friday night. Previous model runs had indicated a very moist low would move into at least the northern half of California late Thursday through Friday night with significant precipitation. the latest model runs, at least some of them, are now showing a sharp ridge of high pressure just off shore building into the Gulf of Alaska while yet another cold trough of low pressure noses in along the west coast for a chance of light showers, mainly over the mountains. We’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast for late Thursday through Friday night, however at this juncture that’s a low confidence forecast.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing Saturday and Sunday mornings,, but just slightly above in the coldest locations. Yet another cold trough of low pressure will spread showers over the area Saturday night and Sunday. So, another cold air mass will settle over the region Monday through Wednesday. Low to mid 30s are likely Monday through Wednesday. There will be in and out cloud cover during the period. If skies clear on any of these nights, there will be a chance of upper 20s in the coldest locations. It had appeared a westerly flow would set up shop by Friday. That is very much in doubt now as some models are showing another cold trough nosing down the west coast late Thursday and Friday. It’s possible we could get another injection of cold air along with a chance of showers. Due to model differences, it’s difficult to come up with a definitive forecast for Thursday and through the weekend. For now, we’ll go with above freezing temperatures, but this is certainly subject to change. We’ll just have to see what modeling trends become apparent in the next couple of days.

 

Next report: March 4 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.