March 3, 2023
We are currently under the influence of weak high pressure over the eastern Pacific. This puts us in a northwesterly flow aloft which is keeping temperatures 5 to 7 degrees below average. This high will keep its present position for another 18 hours or so then will begin to be suppressed southward by yet another very cold low from the Gulf of Alaska. That low will set up shop off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with its southern flank moving southward into northern and central California by Saturday evening. Light showers will spread as far south as Fresno County Saturday night with light showers over the remainder of the valley mainly north of Kern County Sunday and Sunday night. The cold trough itself will remain in place through Wednesday night of next week. however, it appears the main rain line will migrate back north into northern California with dry weather for the valley from Monday through Wednesday night. Models show a westerly flow beginning Thursday. Embedded within this flow are a couple of disturbances which, on paper, have a considerable amount of moisture associated with them. This would give the northern half of California heavy precipitation. the breakoff point between wet and dry weather is unclear at this time. For now, it appears Fresno north should receive a plentiful amount of precipitation with dry weather over southern California. The flow aloft will remain westerly through the weekend and well into the following week with unsettled weather from time to time.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday morning. Increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Saturday night with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. Scattered light showers likely Sunday and Sunday night, mainly from Kern County north. Variable cloudiness Monday through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness with a chance of afternoon precipitation, mainly from Fresno County north. A chance of rain Thursday night through Friday night, mainly north of Kern County.
Temperatures:
| Madera 58/36/58/38/54 | Reedley 59/37/58/38/53 | Dinuba 57/35/57/37/53 |
| Porterville 59/36/58/39/54 | Lindsay 58/35/58/38/54 | Delano 60/37/59/39/55 |
| Bakersfield 59/38/59/41/55 | Taft 58/41/59/40/54 | Arvin 60/38/59/39/55 |
| Lamont 60/39/58/38/55 | Pixley 57/36/58/36/53 | Tulare 56/35/58//37/53 |
| Woodlake 59/36/58/38/54 | Hanford 59/38/59/39/54 | Orosi 58/36/58/38/55 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Variable clouds 35/54 |
Tuesday
Variable clouds 34/54 |
Wednesday
Variable clouds 32/56 |
Thursday
Pm rain possible 39/58 |
Friday
Chance of rain 39/62 |
Two Week Outlook: March 10 through March 16 This model gives the highest likelihood of precipitation anywhere in the country for this period of time to northern and central California. With the likelihood of precipitation will be below average temperatures.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph during the afternoons through Saturday and generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions nights and mornings. Winds Saturday night will become out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph, continuing Monday.
Rain Discussion: The weather will remain dry through Saturday. Light showers will spread at least as far as Fresno County Saturday night and over the remainder of the valley Sunday, mainly north of Kern County. This will be a minor event with generally less than .10 south of Fresno County and perhaps as much as .20 from Fresno to Merced County. Dry weather will return Monday, continuing into Thursday. Models continue to show a moist Pacific low moving into the northern half of California Thursday night through Friday night. Where models are having difficulty is trying to determine the southern limit of the rain line. For now, it appears rain will be likely from Fresno County north with a chance further south. Over the weekend and well into the following week, a zonal, or westerly flow will prevail. Embedded within this flow will be Pacific disturbances, resulting in active weather from time to time.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing tonight and again Saturday night. Low to mid 30s are possible Monday through Wednesday of next week. active weather will prevail over northern California, spreading variable amounts of cloud cover over the valley from time to time. As a result, most nights will be in the 30s. Coldest conditions on any one of those nights could fall to 30 to 32 in those colder locations out there, but no significant frost/freeze is expected.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 97%/50%, Delano 95%44%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .49, Parlier, .33, Arvin 62, Porterville .37, Delano .46 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 48, Arvin 52, Porterville 46, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/43 Record Temperatures: 80/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2077 +69 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 13.87, Monthly .39
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.91, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature This Month 44.8 -9.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:26, sunset, 5:56. Hours of daylight, 11:28
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / 58 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 57 / M / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 17.50 178 8.21 84 9.82 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 15.39 176 8.16 93 8.76 12.27
MERCED 0.00 15.76 190 5.87 71 8.28 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 7.40 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 13.87 186 5.25 71 7.44 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 10.75 194 4.78 86 5.54 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.91 159 3.67 85 4.34 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 9.97 293 4.50 132 3.40 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.93 66 M M 1.40 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 10.59 115 6.18 67 9.19 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 15.70 178 7.37 84 8.81 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.37 194 6.33 67 9.49 13.32
Next report: March 3 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.