March 4, 2023
A cold low is centered just west of the Washington coast this afternoon with a trough extending southward into northern California. Scattered showers are occurring from roughly Stockton north, but are not expected to advance southward into the growing area. This trough will remain in its present position until Wednesday then a new pattern will begin to take shape Thursday which will last well into next week. instead of a very cold low from the Gulf of Alaska, we will become under the influence of a strong west to east jet stream flanked underneath a low centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Lower latitude storms will be embedded within this flow. The first will arrive Thursday night and will last well into Saturday. As each successive model run comes across my desk, it’s becoming more apparent this will be yet another precipitation event. Estimates for the Sierra Nevada for Thursday through Saturday are generally in the 3 to 5 inch range with snow levels rising to about 8,000 feet. Rising rivers and streams will be the main concern. A second system is due to arrive about Monday and Tuesday of next week. if, too, will have plenty of subtropical moisture involved. So, after weeks of well below average temperatures and periodic storms, we will enter a period of above average temperatures, also with periodic storminess.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday. A chance of showers Thursday night. Rain likely Friday through Saturday, possibly locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. A chance of rain Monday through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
Madera 32/57/33/57 | Reedley 33/58/33/59 | Dinuba 31/57/32/58 |
Porterville 32/59/33/59 | Lindsay 31/58/32/59 | Delano 34/59/34/60 |
Bakersfield 37/57/36/58 | Taft 38/56/38/56 | Arvin 35/59/35/60 |
Lamont 34/59/35/60 | Pixley 33/56/34/58 | Tulare 32/56/33/57 |
Woodlake 32/58/32/59 | Hanford 33/59/34/60 | Orosi 32/58/33/59 |
Wind Discussion: Winds through Wednesday night will be generally at or less than 12 mph afternoons and evenings and variable in nature. winds during the night and mornings will be at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday will be out of the east or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Rain: It is becoming more apparent that yet another significant rain event is on the way, but not until sometime as early as Thursday night. However, Friday and Saturday will be the main event. Unlike so many storms over the past month, this system has its origins over the lower latitudes with subtropical moisture involved. The potential for very heavy rain is there from roughly Kern County north with as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain falling on a massive snowpack. On the valley floor, a rain shadow will develop along the east side. Even so, places like Porterville and points north, as much as 1 to 2 inches are possible. The western side of Fresno and Kings counties could pick up between .50 and 1.00. latest models have Kern County on the southern edge of this moist feed of air, so less than .50 is likely over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. there will be a break in the action during the second half of the weekend then models depict a second storm moving in Monday and Tuesday. Models also show the active pattern continuing next week with possibly more precipitation.
Frost: With generally clear skies tonight, most locations will chill into the low to mid 30s. there is a possibility of those traditional cold locations dipping into the upper 20s for short durations. Similar conditions can be expected Wednesday morning and possibly Thursday morning. Clouds in advance of the next weather system may arrive in time to halt the radiational cooling process Thursday morning. My feeling is these clouds will not arrive until later Thursday. Models actually show that Thursday could be the coldest morning of the week with most locations in the 29 to 34 range. Thursday morning will be the last frost morning we’ll see for a while as a moist westerly flow sets up across the eastern Pacific and into California. The round of subfreezing nights we’ve endured for the last month will be replaced by lows in the mid to upper 40s and possibly even the low 50s. This mild pattern will continue for much of the following week.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
Next report: March 5 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.