Updates
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  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

March 6, 2023 afternoon report

March 4, 2023

A cold low is centered just west of the Washington coast this afternoon with a trough extending southward into northern California. Scattered showers are occurring from roughly Stockton north, but are not expected to advance southward into the growing area. This trough will remain in its present position until Wednesday then a new pattern will begin to take shape Thursday which will last well into next week. instead of a very cold low from the Gulf of Alaska, we will become under the influence of a strong west to east jet stream flanked underneath a low centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Lower latitude storms will be embedded within this flow. The first will arrive Thursday night and will last well into Saturday. As each successive model run comes across my desk, it’s becoming more apparent this will be yet another precipitation event. Estimates for the Sierra Nevada for Thursday through Saturday are generally in the 3 to 5 inch range with snow levels rising to about 8,000 feet. Rising rivers and streams will be the main concern. A second system is due to arrive about Monday and Tuesday of next week. if, too, will have plenty of subtropical moisture involved. So, after weeks of well below average temperatures and periodic storms, we will enter a period of above average temperatures, also with periodic storminess.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday. A chance of showers Thursday night. Rain likely Friday through Saturday, possibly locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. A chance of rain Monday through Tuesday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 32/57/33/57 Reedley 33/58/33/59 Dinuba 31/57/32/58
Porterville 32/59/33/59 Lindsay 31/58/32/59 Delano 34/59/34/60
Bakersfield 37/57/36/58 Taft 38/56/38/56 Arvin 35/59/35/60
Lamont 34/59/35/60 Pixley 33/56/34/58 Tulare 32/56/33/57
Woodlake 32/58/32/59 Hanford 33/59/34/60 Orosi 32/58/33/59

 

Wind Discussion: Winds through Wednesday night will be generally at or less than 12 mph afternoons and evenings and variable in nature. winds during the night and mornings will be at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday will be out of the east or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

 

Rain: It is becoming more apparent that yet another significant rain event is on the way, but not until sometime as early as Thursday night. However, Friday and Saturday will be the main event. Unlike so many storms over the past month, this system has its origins over the lower latitudes with subtropical moisture involved. The potential for very heavy rain is there from roughly Kern County north with as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain falling on a massive snowpack. On the valley floor,  a rain shadow will develop along the east side. Even so, places like Porterville and points north, as much as 1 to 2 inches are possible. The western side of Fresno and Kings counties could pick up between .50 and 1.00. latest models have Kern County on the southern edge of this moist feed of air, so less than .50 is likely over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. there will be a break in the action during the second half of the weekend then models depict a second storm moving in Monday and Tuesday. Models also show the active pattern continuing next week with possibly more precipitation.

 

Frost:  With generally clear skies tonight, most locations will chill into the low to mid 30s. there is a possibility of those traditional cold locations dipping into the upper 20s for short durations. Similar conditions can be expected Wednesday morning and possibly Thursday morning. Clouds in advance of the next weather system may arrive in time to halt the radiational cooling process Thursday morning. My feeling is these clouds will not arrive until later Thursday. Models actually show that Thursday could be the coldest morning of the week with most locations in the 29 to 34 range. Thursday morning will be the last frost morning we’ll see for a while as a moist westerly flow sets up across the eastern Pacific and into California. The round of subfreezing nights we’ve endured for the last month will be replaced by lows in the mid to upper 40s and possibly even the low 50s. This mild pattern will continue for much of the following week.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

33

Strathmore

32

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

af

Plainview

32

Mettler

AF

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

 

Next report: March 5 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.