March 7, 2023
Temperatures early this morning are running mostly in the low to mid 30s. Isolated pockets dipped into the upper 20s. this is discussed in the frost summary below. A low center remains off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with the southern flank sagging southward into northern California. Light snow showers are occurring along the Sierra Nevada as far south as Yosemite. Precipitation will not advance any further south. In fact, beginning late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, the trough will begin to pull off towards the northeast as a westerly flow begins to take shape over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This will lead us into an extremely wet period of time as the very cold pattern of the past few weeks is replaced by a mild pattern. this new zonal flow will have Pacific storms embedded within it which will move on shore from time to time. The first of these systems will spread rain over northern California Thursday and into central California Thursday night into Friday night. Very heavy precipitation will develop along the Sierra Nevada. Latest quantitative precipitation estimates are now spitting out numbers like 6 to 8 inches in the Sierra between Thursday and Saturday. This rain will be falling on top of a massive Sierra snow pack, resulting in flooding along streams and rivers. There will be a brief break between storms Saturday into Monday before the next storm moves on shore. A mild westerly flow will continue into much of next week, so any low pressure system that decides to develop will have no problem racing on shore for more precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through tonight. Increasing cloudiness Thursday. A chance of rain Thursday night. Rain becoming likely Thursday night. Rain at times Friday through Saturday, possibly locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. A chance of rain Monday through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 58/34/59/34/62 | Reedley 59/34/59/35/63 | Dinuba 57/33/59/34/61 |
| Porterville 59/31/59//32/62 | Lindsay 58/32/59/33/62 | Delano 59/35/59/34/61 |
| Bakersfield 57/37/58/38/63 | Taft 55/39/57/40/64 | Arvin 58//35/59/35/63 |
| Lamont 59/35//59/36/62 | Pixley 56/34/57/35/63 | Tulare 56/32/57/33/61 |
| Woodlake 58/33/59/34/62 | Hanford 58/33/59/34/63 | Orosi 57/32/59/33/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Rain 50/64 |
Saturday
Rain 52/65 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 47/68 |
Monday
Chance of rain 47/70 |
Tuesday
Chance of rain 52/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 13 through March 19 This model continues to show an active storm track into California. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday night. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday through Friday will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts possible.
Rain Discussion: The next chance of rain will arrive Thursday afternoon, becoming likely Thursday night through Saturday at times. A moist west to east jet stream will move across the eastern Pacific Ocean and into California during this time period. This is a lower latitude storm with plenty of subtropical moisture embedded within it from Thursday through Saturday, a good one to two inches of rain will fall on the eastern side of the valley and possibly more north of Kern County. A rain shadow will develop along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties so rainfall amounts in that area is expected to be less than one inch. Kern County will be on the southern flank of this event and will also be involved in the rain shadow with a half inch less of rain expected. As mentioned in the summary, as much as six to eight inches is likely below the 8000 foot mark. For now, Sunday and Monday appears to be a dry period before the next Pacific storm moves on shore Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Frost Discussion. Most locations as of 6:00am were registering lows in the low to mid 30s. Lindsay was the coldest I could find at 28 while both Exeter and Strathmore came in at 29. Similar conditions are expected tonight. Energy continues to flow into northern California, resulting in scattered showers from roughly a Tahoe/Sacramento line north. There will be some cloud cover from this source overhead from time to time, but by and large, not enough to really interfere with the radiational cooling process. Most locations Wednesday and Thursday mornings will fall into the low toj mid 30s. Isolated pockets could briefly fall into the upper 20s, mainly in low spots. Beginning Friday morning, all locations will be well above 32degrees as a mild westerly flow begins. Temperatures from this weekend through at least all of next week will be well above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/56%, Delano 94%45%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .68, Parlier, .55, Arvin 68, Porterville .57, Delano .66 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 49, Arvin 52, Porterville 48, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43 Record Temperatures: 84/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2141 +93 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 14.19, Monthly .71
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.91, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature This Month 47.4 -7.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:20, sunset, 6:00. Hours of daylight, 11:37
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 57 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 59 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : M / M / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON T 17.87 177 8.21 81 10.09 13.45
MODESTO 0.02 15.84 176 8.17 91 9.02 12.27
MERCED 0.00 15.86 186 5.88 69 8.53 11.80
MADERA 0.00 7.98 104 1.58 21 7.68 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 14.19 185 5.43 71 7.69 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 10.78 188 5.29 92 5.74 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.91 154 4.35 97 4.50 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 9.97 286 4.50 129 3.49 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.93 65 M M 1.44 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 10.84 114 6.26 66 9.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.01 15.94 174 7.37 80 9.16 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 18.43 187 6.35 64 9.85 13.32
Next report: March 7 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.