March 6, 2023
Through Wednesday, we will remain under a cold low with its center over Washington state southward to central California. The main rain line will be pulling further north into northern California so we’ll at least have a few dry days before a new wet pattern develops Thursday. By Thursday, a lower latitude storm will approach the northern and central California coast. This means much higher snow levels and warmer temperatures. By Friday, some models are showing an atmospheric river of air moving into the northern 2/3 of California. Heavy rains falling on top of a massive Sierra snow pack means rising rivers and streams along the Sierra Nevada. Preliminary models for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada indicate about 3 to 5 inches of rain on top of that snowpack from Thursday night through Friday night. A second storm, also mild, will arrive Monday and Tuesday for more significant precipitation for northern and central California. It’s possible the valley floor could pick up 1 to 2 inches during the first storm. The fact that this storm will be running west to east means a rain shadow will develop, reducing the potential rain there. Medium range models show the west to east flow continuing later next week, however most of the storminess will be over northern California and points north for a possible drying trend for the valley. However, due to inconsistent model information, the pattern for later next week is in doubt.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday. A chance of showers Thursday night. Rain likely Friday and Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night and Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 56/33/56/34/58 | Reedley 57/34/58/35/59 | Dinuba 57/33/58/34/58 |
| Porterville 58/33/59/35/59 | Lindsay 58/32/59/34/59 | Delano 58/35/59/35/60 |
| Bakersfield 56/38/57/38/57 | Taft 55/38/56/38/57 | Arvin 57/35/59/36/59 |
| Lamont 57/34/58/35/59 | Pixley 56/34/56/35/58 | Tulare 55/33/57/34/57 |
| Woodlake 57/33/58/35/59 | Hanford 56/34/58/35/59 | Orosi 58/33/59/35/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Increasing clouds 34/59 |
Friday
Rain likely 47/53 |
Saturday
AM showers 51/65 |
Sunday
Party cloudy 47/67 |
Monday
Chance of showers 48/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 13 through March 19 This model continues to show an active storm track into California. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Wednesday night will be generally at or less than 12 mph afternoons and evenings and variable in nature. winds during the night and mornings will be at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday will be out of the east or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Rain Discussion: Even though a cold trough of low pressure still resides over the west, the main line of precipitation has moved back into northern California. Expect dry weather into Thursday. Models are coming more into agreement on a moisture laden storm moving in from late Thursday into Saturday. This will be a lower latitude event with much higher snow levels, resulting in heavy rain on top of a massive snow pack. This far out, it appears the east side of the valley north of Kern County could measure between 1 and 2 inches of rain. Western Fresno County and much of Kings County could measure between about ½ to 1.00 with the valley portion of Kern County picking up roughly 1/3 of an inch. Dry weather will return Saturday night and Sunday. Another mild storm shows up for Monday and Tuesday with equally as high of a snow level. Models are too inconsistent for later next week to come up with a definitive forecast.
Frost Discussion. It still appears Tuesday through Thursday mornings will generally be in the low to mid 30s. even though the main trough of low pressure is still over the west, the active portion of the storm has moved back into northern California. On any of these three nights, isolated pockets in the upper 20s will be there, but temperatures are expected to be above critical levels. Beginning Friday, a much milder pattern will begin with a westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will rise into the 40s and possibly even the low 50s as subtropical air moves in from the west.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/56%, Delano 94%45%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .66, Parlier, .54, Arvin 68, Porterville .50, Delano .61 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 49, Arvin 51, Porterville 48, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43 Record Temperatures: 86/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2095 +77 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 14.19, Monthly .71
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.91, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature This Month 47.0 -7.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:21, sunset, 5:59. Hours of daylight, 11:35
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 35 / 0.10 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 53 / 37 / 0.14 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 50 / 39 / 0.32 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 58 / 39 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 56 / 38 / 0.06 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 58 / 44 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 54 / 38 / 0.13 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : M / M / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON 0.34 17.87 178 8.21 82 10.03 13.45
MODESTO 0.34 15.75 176 8.17 91 8.95 12.27
MERCED 0.10 15.86 187 5.88 69 8.47 11.80
MADERA 0.14 8.12 107 1.58 21 7.61 10.79
FRESNO 0.32 14.19 186 5.43 71 7.63 10.99
HANFORD 0.02 10.77 189 5.29 93 5.69 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 6.91 155 4.35 98 4.46 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 9.97 287 4.50 130 3.47 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.93 65 M M 1.43 2.20
SALINAS 0.19 10.84 115 6.26 66 9.42 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.09 15.93 176 7.37 81 9.07 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.06 18.43 189 6.35 65 9.76 13.32
Next report: March 6 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.