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Forecast

March 7, 2023 afternoon report

March 7, 2023

A broad area of low pressure continues to cover western Canada southward to central California. The active portion of this system has migrated further north with precipitation no further south than a Fort Bratt/Red Bluff line. Wednesday will be the last day of this pattern as a new low develops off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The jet stream will run from west to east underneath this low, carrying abundant subtropical moisture which will manifest in the form of heavy rain and much higher snow levels. Snow levels which have been as low as 1,000 feet will rise to over 8,000 feet during this event. Latest precipitation indications still show as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain will be measured along the Sierra Nevada on top of a massive snow pack. This will lead to flooding in rivers and streams. Significant precipitation is expected on the valley floor as well. Portions of the east side of the valley could measure over 2 inches of rain. This is discussed in the rainfall discussion below. This storm will also be a prolonged event, lasting from late Thursday afternoon to well into Saturday. Models continue to show a moist westerly flow across the Pacific well into next week. models do show yet another storm arriving Tuesday. So much moisture from the subtropic Pacific is expected that a chance of precipitation seems like a good forecast for all next week. a drying trend is expected after next Wednesday, possibly lasting several days.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. increasing cloudiness Thursday morning. Rain likely by evening. Rain at times Thursday night through Friday night. Showers Saturday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. A chance of showers Monday though Tuesday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 33/58/35/63 Reedley 33/59/34/62 Dinuba 32/57/33/63
Porterville 32/59/35/63 Lindsay 31/58/34/63 Delano 33/60/34/64
Bakersfield 37/58/38/65 Taft 38/57/41/64 Arvin 36/59/37/64
Lamont 35/60/36/63 Pixley 33/58/35/64 Tulare 32/57/34/62
Woodlake 33/58/35/62 Hanford 34/59/36/63 Orosi 32/58/34/62

 

Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday night. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday through Friday will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts possible.

 

Rain: Another big rain event is on the way in a winter which has had plenty of big rain events. Rain will begin to overspread the valley from the west by late afternoon and evening Thursday. The parent low from this event will be centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a very moist subtropical jet stream slamming into California from west to east. Copious amounts of rain will fall up and down the Sierra Nevada. Latest estimates indicate between 6 and 8 inches of rain will fall below the 8,000 foot mark on top of a huge snow pack. Between Thursday afternoon and Saturday, as much as 2 inches of rain will be possible generally east of Highway 99 north of Kern County. A rain shadow will develop along the west side, however, with this much subtropical moisture involved, even with the rain shadow, amounts will be substantial even on the west side where as much as an inch could be measured. Rainfall estimates in Kern County will be trickier as the Kern County mountains will serve as the dividing line between dry weather over southern California and the heavy precipitation over the northern 2/3 of California. If the elements set up just right, between ½ and 1/3 of an inch is possible on the valley portion of Kern County. As of now it looks like dry conditions will prevail Sunday and Sunday night before the next lower latitude storm begins to affect central California Monday through Tuesday. For now, this storm doesn’t appear to be as impressive as the first one. Still, with very high snow levels continuing more rain of any kind will simply compound problems in the mountains.

 

Frost:  With mostly clear skies and near calm winds, lows tonight will again be mostly in the low to mid 30s. Coldest regions may briefly fall into the 28 to 29 degree range with most flatland type areas ranging from 30 to 35. Hillsides will be above freezing. Thursday morning will be the last we’ll see of frost for a while as low to mid 30s are likely again as the leading edge of cloud cover from the next mild Pacific storm will probably arrive too late to be effective. Beginning Friday morning, we’ll see much warmer temperatures with lows generally in the upper 40s to the mid 50s as a subtropical air mass rides in from the west on the jet stream, resulting in heavy precipitation. Model information hat not only encompasses the rest of this week but most of next week as well with well above freezing temperatures. At this point in the spring frost season, you never say frost is over, but it will be nice to have above freezing temperatures for a while.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

33

Strathmore

31

McFarland

32

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

33

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

33

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

af

Plainview

32

Mettler

AF

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

32

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

32

 

Next report: March 8 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.