March 8, 2023
Today is the last day of the overall pattern that resulted in a cold, wet February and cooler than average conditions for the first week in March. A low center will slide southward along the British Columbia coast to a position west of the Oregon coast Thursday while a strong, moist west to east flow develops over the eastern Pacific and into California beginning Thursday. This new pattern will result in much warmer temperatures. Embedded within this flow are Pacific storms. The first is the strongest. It has large amounts of subtropical moisture involved. Short term high resolution models continue to indicate large amounts of precipitation for all of central California. These models still project 6 to 8 inches of snow along the Sierra Nevada below the 8,000 foot elevation, meaning there will be heavy runoff into the streams and rivers. Models have actually increased rainfall estimates for the valley floor with as much as 2 to 4 inches along the east side of the valley. I remember a storm just last month where models were projecting heavy rains. This was viewed with skepticism. When all was said and done, rainfall totals actually exceeded estimates. I’m hoping that will not be the case this time around. The rain will finally begin to taper off this Saturday with a lull in the action Sunday and Sunday night. However, this same basic pattern will remain in place with a warm, moist westerly flow into California. The next event will begin Monday, lasting into Tuesday. From there, we may have 72 hours of dry weather before a third system arrives next Saturday. Each of these systems will have very high snow levels, each of which will have originated in the lower latitudes meaning there will be plenty of subtropical air.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight. Increasing cloudiness Thursday morning. Rain becoming likely later Thursday afternoon. Rain Thursday night through Friday night, locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Saturday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. A chance of rain Monday afternoon. Rain likely Monday night and Tuesday with a chance of rain Wednesday
Temperatures:
| Madera 58/35/63/50/65 | Reedley 59/34/61/51/65 | Dinuba 58/34/61/50/64 |
| Porterville 58/33/61/49/65 | Lindsay 58/32/63/49/64 | Delano 58/36/65/51/66 |
| Bakersfield 58/39/67/54/66 | Taft 57//41/65/55/68 | Arvin 60/37/65/54/65 |
| Lamont 60/37/65/53/67 | Pixley 58//36/63/50/64 | Tulare 57/32/63/48/64 |
| Woodlake 58/33/61/48/63 | Hanford 59/35/63/50/65 | Orosi 58/33/61/49/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Showers likely 53/65 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 47/67 |
Monday
Pm rain 48/69 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 53/69 |
Wednesday
Chance of rain 45/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 16 through March 22 This model continues to show an active storm track into California. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph today and generally less than 6 mph tonight. Winds Thursday and Friday will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts along the west side and locally elsewhere. Winds Saturday will be generally variable to 15 mph.
Rain Discussion: The chance of rain will begin to increase by mid to late afternoon Wednesday. Rain will continue Thursday night through Friday night with showers Saturday. Short range high resolution model estimates continue to be very impressive. Generally on a line from Highway 99 eastward to the base of the foothills, 2 to 4 inches will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Along the west side, mainly in Fresno and Kings Counties, between 1 and 2 inches and over the valley portion of Kern County, as much as an inch of precipitation is now estimated. Showers will taper off Saturday night with dry weather Sunday and Sunday night. The chance of rain will begin to increase again Monday afternoon, continuing at times through Tuesday. Currently it looks like we’ll have 72 hours of dry weather before storm number 3 arrives Saturday.
Frost Discussion. Sanger was the coldest I could find this morning with a reading of 29 degrees as of 6:00am. Most other locations were between 30 and 35. Similar conditions are expected tonight, however we may see some increase clouds during the morning hours to at least slow the radiational cooling process. If these clouds arrive in time, lows will only be in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. this will be the last chance at even local frost for quite some time as a moist subtropical flow will begin, arriving Thursday. Some locations Friday morning may not even fall below the 50 degree mark with similar conditions over the weekend. A west to east zonal flow will continue next week, meaning the cold northerly flow which was so dominant in recent weeks will have no chance at reoccurring.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
33 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/52%, Delano 96%43%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .73, Parlier, .63, Arvin 66, Porterville .62, Delano .69 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 49, Arvin 52, Porterville 48, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/44 Record Temperatures: 84/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2159 +101 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 14.19, Monthly .71
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.91, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature This Month 47.4 -7.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:19, sunset, 6:01. Hours of daylight, 11:40
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 59 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 58 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 56 / 41 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON T 17.87 176 8.21 81 10.16 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 15.84 174 8.17 90 9.08 12.27
MERCED 0.00 15.86 185 5.88 68 8.59 11.80
MADERA 0.00 7.98 103 1.58 20 7.75 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 14.19 183 5.43 70 7.76 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 10.78 186 5.29 91 5.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.91 152 4.35 96 4.54 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 9.97 284 4.50 128 3.51 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.93 64 M M 1.46 2.20
SALINAS 0.09 10.93 114 6.26 65 9.56 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 15.94 172 7.37 80 9.25 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.43 185 6.35 64 9.94 13.32
Next report: March 8 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.