March 10, 2023 pm
Numerous flash flood warnings have been issued for much of Tulare County and parts of Fresno County. Rivers along the Sierra Nevada are raging due to extremely heavy rain falling on a massive snow pack. A few examples of those heavy rates up through noon are: Giant Forest 9.47, Peppermint 8.96, and Johnsondale 7.62. Many other locations have picked up between 4 and 7 inches of rain. Heaviest amounts have been in Tulare County. Satellite imagery at midday shows a classic pineapple connection stretching from California to near Hawaii. This moist, juicy flow of subtropical air will continue through Saturday night, although the heaviest rain from this event has probably already occurred. Models show a low pressure system just off the Oregon coast with the jet stream flanked underneath the low aimed right at central California. This flow is perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, resulting in tremendous amounts of precipitation. bear in mind also, the latest freezing level over Oakland was pegged at 9,300 feet. This first system will wind down by Saturday evening with generally dry weather Sunday through Monday. storm number two will arrive Monday night. This system also will have plenty of subtropical juice associated with it for another round of substantial precipitation with rain lasting into Wednesday morning, tapering off during the afternoon. Latest models this afternoon continue to show a drying trend from Wednesday night into next weekend. Storm number three appears to be much weaker with precipitation mainly in northern California and points northward.
Forecast: Periods of showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms through the late evening hours. A chance of showers after midnight showers likely Saturday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers Saturday night. Party cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday. rain likely Monday night, especially after midnight. Rain likely at times Tuesday through Tuesday night. Showers likely Wednesday. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Becoming mostly clear Thursday through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 53/66/50/67 | Reedley 53/66/50/67 | Dinuba 52/65/50/65 |
| Porterville 54/69/51/69 | Lindsay 53/68/51/66 | Delano 54/68/51/67 |
| Bakersfield 56/68/52/67 | Taft 55/69/52/68 | Arvin 55/69/52/68 |
| Lamont 55/68/53/67 | Pixley 53/65/52/67 | Tulare 52/66/50/67 |
| Woodlake 52/67/50/67 | Hanford 54/69/52/68 | Orosi 52/65/51/66 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast tonight and Saturday at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph possible, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds will be variable Saturday to around 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers. Winds Saturday night through Monday will be variable to around 12 mph. Still watching models for Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong surface low develops off the northern California coast with considerably higher pressure over southern California and the Desert Southwest. This could potentially generate some strong, gusty southeast winds up the valley. This configuration is also one which historically has generated high winds in Kern County, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. For now, I would put a high wind event in the 50/50 category, but it definitely deserves watching.
Rain: Some rainfall stats are in the summary above for the mountain areas. The following are storm totals through noon on the valley floor: Bakersfield .23, Porterville 1.33, Kettleman Hills .50, Lemoore 1.20, Exeter 2.10, Stratford .77, Fresno .11, and Madera .82.
The heaviest part of this event is over for the valley, but heavy rain will continue in the mountain regions. On the valley floor, periods of showers will continue at times through Saturday evening then wind down. Rainfall amounts for the remainder of this event will be generally less than a third of an inch.. Heavier amounts are possible where isolated thunderstorms occur. Late Saturday night through most of Monday will be dry. Rain will spread over the valley again Monday night through Tuesday night with showers lasting well into Wednesday. Locally heavy rain is certainly possible with this storm, especially over the mountains. After Wednesday, models continue to show a drying trend from Thursday through next weekend. It had appeared a third storm would affect the region next weekend, but more and more that appears to be off the table.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next several days.
Next report: March 11 morning
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