March 13, 2023 pm
Satellite imagery as of midday was showing the leading edge of the cloud deck from the next Pacific storm to be roughly 350 miles west of the central coast. A large mass of subtropical moisture will move inland later tonight through Tuesday night, followed by showers Wednesday. Very little has changed since this morning. We still expect a good 3 to 6 inches of rain over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and 2 to 4 inches over the lower foothills. This isn’t as juicy as the previous storm, but is impressive nonetheless. Another 3 to 6 feet of new snow will fall above the 8,000 foot mark. A rather robust surface low will be located just west of San Francisco by sunrise Tuesday. The difference in pressure between the low and higher barometers over southern California will generate gusty southeast winds up the valley Tuesday and Tuesday evening. As pressure differences equalize by later Tuesday night, the winds will quickly die off. Showers will last well into Wednesday morning then will taper off later in the day. The next Pacific storm out there looks anemic. In fact, the latest GFS model shows no rain even reaching the Golden State while others show a slight chance. The next system due in during the second half of the weekend also looks washed out. So, if you go by the latest model information, the next chance for a significant rain event won’t arrive until a week from Wednesday when some modes are suggesting the developing of another atmospheric river.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this evening. Rain spreading in from the west after midnight. Periods of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night, locally heavy at times. Showers Wednesday morning with a chance of showers during the afternoon. Partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night. A slight chance of showers late Friday and Friday night. A chance of showers late Saturday into Sunday. Party cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/63/49/60 | Reedley 56/64/50/60 | Dinuba 54/63/49/59 |
| Porterville 55/65/51/58 | Lindsay 54/64/51//59 | Delano 56/65/51/58 |
| Bakersfield 57/66/52/60 | Taft 56/66/52/59 | Arvin 55/66/51/60 |
| Lamont 55/66/51/61 | Pixley 54/63/50/60 | Tulare 53/63/49/59 |
| Woodlake 54/63/49/59 | Hanford 55/65/50/59 | Orosi 54/64/49/58 |
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts after midnight. Winds Tuesday and Tuesday evening will be out of the east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph are possible, mainly along the west side. From late tonight through Tuesday evening, strong, gusty, east to southeast winds can be expected near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, possibly as strong as 50 mph. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be variable to 15 mph. Winds Thursday will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature.
Rain: Quantitative precipitation estimates this afternoon show the next system in is not as strong as the most recent one, but it’s still impressive. Computer data for Porterville, for example, indicates right at 1 inch of rain from later tonight until Wednesday morning. Generally speaking, the eastern portion of the valley from Merced County southward to Tulare County will generally receive from .85 to 1.50, western Fresno County and Kings County can pick up between .75n and 1.20 with the valley portion of Kern County receiving no more than .50. Most models show shower activity ending Wednesday afternoon.
The next system out there for late Friday through Friday night is apparently going to be a nonevent with only a slight chance of light showers, mainly north of Fresno County. The system due in over the weekend is equally weak with no more than light showers expected. The next chance of a significant ran event may not arrive until a week from Wednesday when some models are suggesting another atmospheric river event.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next several days.
Next report: March 14 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.