March 13, 2023 am
Satellite imagery depicts a wide swath of cloud cover roughly 400 miles off the California coast which will be moving onshore tonight with the next round of moderate to heavy rain over all of central California. Also, a surface low will be approaching the coast at the same time, increasing the pressure gradient from off shore northern and central California and southern California and the Desert Southwest. This will generate gusty southeast winds up the valley and possibly some strong winds near the base of the Kern County mountains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts from this upcoming storm will again be heavy with 3 to 6 additional inches of rain over the higher mountains and 2 to 3 inches in the lower foothills. This rain, of course, will be falling on the snow pack from previous storms, exacerbating the current ongoing flooding. Heaviest rain will be Tuesday and Tuesday night with precipitation tapering off Wednesday. A brief dry period will commence Wednesday night through Thursday night, then a much weaker system will approach the coast Friday morning with just a chance of light showers. Another low will approach the California coast Sunday, however this system is also quite fragmented with only light showers, at best. A couple of other models are showing more atmospheric river events next week, so this is something we’ll have to watch in the coming days, as well.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Rain spreading over the valley tonight, mainly after midnight.. periods of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night, locally heavy at times. Showers Wednesday, mainly before noon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday night. A minimal chance of light showers Friday and Friday night, mainly from Fresno County forward. Partly cloudy Saturday. A chance of showers again late Saturday night through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 68/54/63/50/58 | Reedley 69/53/64/50/59 | Dinuba 68/52/64/50/60 |
| Porterville 70/53/65/51/60 | Lindsay 69/52/64/49/59 | Delano 71/54/65/50/59 |
| Bakersfield 70/55/64/52/60 | Taft 70/56/66/51/58 | Arvin 71/54/65/51/61 |
| Lamont 70/54/65/52/61 | Pixley 70/53/64/50/59 | Tulare 68//52/64//50/59 |
| Woodlake 69/53/63/49/59 | Hanford 70/54/64/50/60 | Orosi 68/52/64/49/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 41/60 |
Friday
Slight chance of showers 43/63 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 44/64 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 47/66 |
Monday
Chance of showers 46/64 |
Two Week Outlook: March 20 through March 26 This model continues to indicate a persistent westerly flow into California from time to time. This pattern will favor above average precipitation and near average precipitation.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the east to southeast at around 5 to 12 mph, increasing to 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts tonight. Winds Tuesday through Tuesday evening will be mainly out of the southeast, increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to near 40 mph along the west side. There remains a chance of gusty downslope winds off the Tehachapi Mountains and onto the valley floor Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Current thinking is gusts to near 50 are possible near the bottom of the Grapevine, Wheeler Ridge, and Taft among others. These winds will die off Wednesday night with much lighter winds Thursday.
Rain Discussion: Today through this evening will be dry. The chance for rain will increase tonight after midnight, continuing through Tuesday night, locally heavy at times. The eastern quadrant of the valley from Merced County southward to Tulare County could pick up another 1 to 2 inches of rain. The west side will pick up between another .50 and 1.00 with generally at or less than .50 in Kern County. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through Thursday night. There’s only a minimal chance of light showers Friday and Friday night mainly from Fresno County north with a somewhat higher risk of light showers Saturday night through Monday. one model is showing another atmospheric river of air event about Wednesday of next week. we’ll study that possibility in the coming days.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/92%, Delano 94%86%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .59, Parlier, .51, Arvin 60, Porterville .56, Delano .61 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Arvin 53, Porterville 49, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 86/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2198. +111 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 15.49, Monthly 2.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 7.43, Monthly: .67
Average Temperature This Month 48.7 -6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:14, sunset, 7:03. Hours of daylight, 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 52 / 0.61 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / M / 0.32 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 56 / 0.58 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / M / 0.63 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 52 / 0.38 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 57 / 0.44 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 55 / 1.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 54 / 1.37 /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON 0.52 19.53 189 8.21 79 10.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.42 16.60 179 8.17 88 9.26 12.27
MERCED 0.55 16.65 189 5.88 67 8.79 11.80
MADERA 0.59 8.88 111 1.58 20 7.97 10.79
FRESNO 0.88 15.49 195 5.43 68 7.95 10.99
HANFORD 1.06 12.07 203 5.29 89 5.94 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.48 7.42 159 4.35 93 4.66 6.36
BISHOP 1.98 12.20 342 4.50 126 3.57 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.93 62 M M 1.49 2.20
SALINAS 1.42 12.40 127 6.26 64 9.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 1.04 17.16 180 7.37 77 9.52 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.72 19.33 189 6.35 62 10.21 13.32
Next report: March 13 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.