March 14, 2023 am
Precipitation is widespread throughout central California at this hour. Radar returns indicate light to moderate rainfall over the central part of the valley and generally light rain over the south valley. The center of circulation is just west of San Francisco. Pressure differences are beginning to tighten up between northern and southern California. The current altimeter reading at San Francisco is 29.77 while at LAX the current reading is 30.03. as surface pressures tighten up, strong, gusty, southeast winds will develop up the west side of the valley and possibly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains later today. Rain, locally heavy at times, will continue throughout the day, turning to showers Wednesday and ending Wednesday afternoon. The fact that this storm is loaded with subtropical moisture and is moving in perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, means another 3 to 6 inches of rain is likely below about 8,000 feet in the Sierra with 2 to 4 inches over the foothills. Most of this precipitation is falling on top of a snow pack. A short break will occur from later Wednesday afternoon through Saturday. The next system very unimpressive. It will spread precipitation into at least northern California Saturday. This is different from other models, but the gfs model indicates another Pacific storm moving in Monday followed by a potentially stronger storm Wednesday with a possible atmospheric river associated with it with yet another storm about a week from Saturday. If this model is correct, next week will be an active weather week.
Forecast: Rain at times through tonight. Showers Wednesday morning. A chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday. A chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday. Rain likely Monday and at times through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 64/51/60/43/64 | Reedley 65/51/61/44/64 | Dinuba 63/49/59/42/63 |
| Porterville 65/50/62/42/63 | Lindsay 65/49/63/41/64 | Delano 66/51/61/43/65 |
| Bakersfield 67/54/60/45/64 | Taft 67/53/58/48/63 | Arvin 66/51/64/44/66 |
| Lamont 65/51/61/45/66 | Pixley 65/50/60/43/64 | Tulare 64/49/59/42/64 |
| Woodlake 63/49/63/41/65 | Hanford 64/50/63/43/66 | Orosi 63/49/60/42/63 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Partly cloudy 42/64 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 46/67 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 47/66 |
Monday
Chance of rain 48/66 |
Tuesday
Chance of rain 47/64 |
Two Week Outlook: March 20 through March 26 This model continues to indicate a persistent westerly flow into California from time to time. This pattern will favor above average precipitation and near average precipitation.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: There is now an increasing difference in pressure between low pressure just off of San Francisco and high pressure over southern California. The result will be gusty winds, especially along the west side of the valley and possibly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Currently, surface models favor gusts to 65 mph or so at places like Taft and the bottom of the Grapevine. It’s always kind of a crap shoot on whether or not these winds do make it down to the valley floor. at any rate, these winds will de off by evening with winds of generally less than 20 mph later tonight and Wednesday. Winds Thursday through Friday will generally be less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions
Rain Discussion: Rain is widespread throughout central California at this hour and this will continue at times through tonight with showers Wednesday morning. The chance of showers will taper off Wednesday afternoon with dry conditions Wednesday night through Saturday. Precipitation estimates this morning are not quite as impressive as they had earlier appeared. For example, they show a reading of .66 for Porterville with similar projections elsewhere. Even so, with all this tropical moisture and high snow levels, large amounts of rain will fall in the foothills and mountains. The next chance of rain will arrive Saturday with light rain Sunday and Sunday night a stronger system will arrive Monday with a chance of heavier precipitation. another system will move in Wednesday with yet another Saturday. These storms are rapidly developing over the subtropical Pacific so no doubt adjustments will have to be made in future forecasts.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/92%, Delano 94%86%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .59, Parlier, .51, Arvin 60, Porterville .56, Delano .61 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Arvin 53, Porterville 49, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 86/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2198. +111 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 15.49, Monthly 2.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 7.43, Monthly: .67
Average Temperature This Month 48.7 -6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:14, sunset, 7:03. Hours of daylight, 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 70 / 49 / 0.23 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 50 / 0.36 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 72 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 71 / 49 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 47 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 71 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 51 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON 0.52 19.53 189 8.21 79 10.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.42 16.60 179 8.17 88 9.26 12.27
MERCED 0.55 16.65 189 5.88 67 8.79 11.80
MADERA 0.59 8.88 111 1.58 20 7.97 10.79
FRESNO 0.88 15.49 195 5.43 68 7.95 10.99
HANFORD 1.06 12.07 203 5.29 89 5.94 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.48 7.42 159 4.35 93 4.66 6.36
BISHOP 1.98 12.20 342 4.50 126 3.57 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.93 62 M M 1.49 2.20
SALINAS 1.42 12.40 127 6.26 64 9.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 1.04 17.16 180 7.37 77 9.52 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.72 19.33 189 6.35 62 10.21 13.32
Next report: March 14 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.