April 29, 2023 am
Summary: The marine layer at Monterey stands at 1,500 feet, which is slightly higher than 24 hours ago. Winds in the Delta are out of the southwest at 19 mph, so it’s possible enough modified sea breeze could reach as far south as Merced County, possibly lowering temperatures there into the lower 90s. There will be no impact on the central or south valley where readings in the mid to upper 90s will be commonplace. This will all begin to change Sunday as a large cold low approaches the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The marine layer will rapidly deepen in response, initially surging through the Delta then through other gaps and passes in the Coast Range later in the day. By evening, winds will have increased into the 10 to 20 mph range out of the northwest, possibly gusting as high as 35 along the west side. Temperatures will take a noticeable downturn Sunday then will absolutely plummet Monday as the valley pools with modified marine air and much cooler air moves in aloft. The low will move southward off the northern California coast Monday then will center near Monterey Tuesday through Wednesday afternoons. The weather will become more and more active over the mountain areas Tuesday with showers developing over the valley floor Tuesday night through Thursday. Since the center of the low will be in close proximity with its cold, unstable air aloft, paired with the long days of May, isolated thunderstorms will be possible, especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. As you might expect, temperatures will take a nosedive with readings struggling to reach the 70 degree mark Tuesday through Friday. A weak trough will remain over the west coast through the weekend, maintaining cool temperatures with another low possibly tracking across California early next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. Partly breezy and much cooler Monday. variable cloudiness Monday night through Thursday night. A slight chance of showers Tuesday afternoon, becoming likely Tuesday night through Thursday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
94/58/87/47/73 |
Reedley
96/59/89/50/74 |
Dinuba
95/58/88/48/72 |
| Porterville
96/59/89/49/73 |
Lindsay
95/57/88/48/73 |
Delano
97/61/88/50/74 |
| Bakersfield
95/66/90/54/72 |
Taft
92/69/88/55/71 |
Arvin
97/62/88/52/74 |
| Lamont
96/61/89/52/74 |
Pixley
95/60/89/49/73 |
Tulare
94/57/87/48/72 |
| Woodlake
95/58/83/49/73 |
Hanford
97/60/84/49/74 |
Orosi
94/57/86/48/72 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
PM showers possible 45/72 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 46/70 |
Thursday
Showers likely 46/71 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 46/70 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 46/74 |
Two Week Outlook: May 6 through May 12: This model is showing a late season low pressure system moving through California with a greater than average shot at precipitation during this period. Even so, temperatures will remain close to average.
April: This model is showing a dominant westerly flow during the month, resulting in below average temperatures. The main storm track will be through the Pacific Northwest and the northern one-fourth of California. Central California is just south of that zone with predicted near average precipitation.
April, May, June: The 90 day outlook calls for generally near to below average precipitation as we head into the dry season. The model doesn’t swing in either direction regarding temperatures, calling for near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds this afternoon will be out of the northwest at around 6 to 12 mph, becoming light and variable tonight. Winds Sunday will initially be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. gusts as high as 35 are possible, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will continue to be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with locally stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through at least Monday night. Most models have slowed down the arrival time of potential showers to late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. There will be a reasonably good chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The chance of showers will diminish Thursday night with dry weather Friday through the weekend. Rainfall amounts from this upcoming event will be spotty and will likely range from .10 to .25. Locally heavier amounts are possible if afternoon thunderstorms develop. Another minimal chance of showers shows up on models for a week from this coming Monday. we’ll track the progress.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.78, Parlier, 1.62, Arvin 1.71, Porterville .NA, Delano 1.58 Soil temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 68, Arvin 67, Porterville NA, Delano 72 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 78/51 Record Temperatures: 96/35
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 41 +1Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.48, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.74, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature This Month 61.6 +0.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:06, sunset, 7:46. hours of daylight, 13:38
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / M / M / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 55 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 94 / 58 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 94 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 61 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 22.87 181 9.75 77 12.65 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 19.31 170 8.99 79 11.36 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.07 182 7.44 67 11.04 11.80
MADERA 0.00 10.83 107 2.10 21 10.09 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.48 171 6.29 62 10.21 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.48 190 6.34 83 7.62 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.74 163 5.40 90 5.99 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.66 332 4.75 116 4.11 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.06 62 M M 1.72 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.73 114 7.31 61 12.01 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.51 176 8.70 75 11.63 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.18 182 7.79 61 12.76 13.32
Next report: May 1 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.