May 1, 2023 am
Summary: Low pressure, mainly at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is stretched all the way from Washington state to southern California. At the surface, the valley is pooled with modified marine air, resulting in temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday at this time. By Monday night, the center of circulation of the low will be near the Bay Area and will begin to result in bands of light showers over northern and central California. This type of weather pattern is really not rare for central California. In most years, some kind of late season event occurs. Models indicate this system will not move much through Wednesday, As a pool of cold, unstable air settles in over central California and combines with intense daytime heating due to the high sun levels May has to offer, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday through Thursday afternoons. Rainfall in most areas will be rather light. The exception will be where and if thunderstorms occur. As you might expect, temperatures will take a nosedive this week and will not even reach the 70 degree mark in most areas. This is a far cry from the mid to upper 90s of this past week. temperatures will remain below average not only through the work week, but through the weekend and well into next week. models diverge somewhat after Friday with a chance of showers from time to time overt the mountains as a trough lingers along the west coast.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Thursday night. A chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday afternoons. A slight chance of showers Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
72/45/68/43/69 |
Reedley
73/46/69/45/69 |
Dinuba
71/45/67/46/68 |
| Porterville
72//47/68/44/69 |
Lindsay
73/45/68/45/69 |
Delano
70/49/66/49/68 |
| Bakersfield
71/50/66/50/68 |
Taft
70/47/63/47/63 |
Arvin
71/48/69/47/68 |
| Lamont
73/47/68/47/69und |
Pixley
72/47/69/47/69 |
Tulare
71/45/67/46/68 |
| Woodlake
71/46/68/46/68 |
Hanford
71/46/68/47/69 |
Orosi
71/45/67/47/68 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Chance of showers 46/69 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 47/68 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 48/72 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 48/75 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 48/77 |
Two Week Outlook: May 9 through May 14: This model is showing a late season low pressure system moving through California with a greater than average shot at precipitation during this period. Even so, temperatures will remain close to average.
May: This model continues trends during the month of May that we saw in April. Pressures will be lower than average along the west coast, resulting in the chance of above average rainfall and below average temperatures
May, June, July: This model doesn’t really move the needle either way for temperatures and rainfall over the next three months.. being that we’’re heading into the hot, dry season,, it means little anyway.
Wind Discussion: There will be periods through Thursday of winds out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 mph. gusts to 25 mph are possible, mainly during the afternoons and mainly near thunderstorms.
Rain Discussion: The main dynamics of this storm are still to our north. As the low tracks slowly south nearly overhead, the counterclockwise circulation around the low will begin to cause bands oof light showers to move over central California. The chance of measurable rain will begin tonight over the valley floor. the sun angle will approach its zenith over the next few weeks, meant daytime heating will be nearly at its strongest. Currents of warm air will begin to move skyward, potentially setting off isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons. Wen and if these storms form, localized small hail will be likely. Most locations this week, however, should measure between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. For now, the weekend appears dry. Models for next week are a bit speculative. They show a trough over the west coast for a continued chance of showers over the mountains. Weather there will be enough upper air dynamics for showers over the valley is questionable so we’ll keep the forecast dry right now for that period of time.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.84, Parlier, 1.66, Arvin 1.77, Porterville .NA, Delano 1.62 Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 70, Arvin 68, Porterville NA, Delano 74 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 78/51 Record Temperatures: 101/38
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 41 +1Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.48, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.74, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature This Month 60.0 +12 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:04, sunset, 7:48. hours of daylight, 13:43
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 85 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 89 / 66 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 87 / 68 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 22.87 180 9.75 77 12.69 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 19.31 169 8.99 79 11.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.07 181 7.44 67 11.08 11.80
MADERA 0.00 10.83 107 2.10 21 10.12 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.48 171 6.29 61 10.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.48 189 6.34 83 7.65 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.74 162 5.40 90 6.01 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.66 332 4.75 115 4.12 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.06 62 M M 1.72 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.73 114 7.31 61 12.04 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.51 176 8.70 75 11.65 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.18 181 7.79 61 12.79 13.32
Next report: May 2 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.