June 5, 2023 am
Summary: We are watching with great interest the development of a weak cut off low roughly 300 miles to the west of Santa Barbara this morning. Clouds are increasing over the western side of the San Joaquin Valley at this hour and these clouds will shift further eastward as the day progresses. Most models place the center of circulation of this feature just west of Vandenberg AFB by Tuesday morning. The chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains tonight and especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The counterclockwise circulation around the low will generate a southeasterly flow around the low which will favor nudging potential showers and thunderstorms over the foothills and onto the valley floor. we’ll keep a chance of activity in the forecast through at least Wednesday morning. By Wednesday night, the low will have weakened to the point of losing its identity. As we get closer to the weekend, a trough of low pressure will move into the western US. As is almost always the case this time of year, the southern portion of the trough will be dry, however it will keep temperatures below average as marine air surges inland from time to time.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Tuesday night. A chance of sprinkles or possible scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday night. A slight chance of isolated showers Wednesday morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
88/57/82/57/82 |
Reedley
89/55/81/56/81 |
Dinuba
88/58/82/56/82 |
| Porterville
91/58/83/58/81 |
Lindsay
90/57/81/57/81 |
Delano
91/60/83/59/82 |
| Bakersfield
88/62/80/61/81 |
Taft
87/61/79/60/81 |
Arvin
91/61/81/61/80 |
| Lamont
92/62/82/61/81 |
Pixley
89/57/82/57/82 |
Tulare
88/58/80/57/80 |
| Woodlake
89/58/81/58/81 |
Hanford
91/60/81/59/81 |
Orosi
88/56/81/57/81 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 58/81 |
Friday
Mostly clear 61/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/87 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 60/82 |
Monday
Mostly clear 60/83 |
Two Week Outlook: June 12 through June 18 This model is showing a broad trough of low pressure over and along the west coast during this timeframe. This time of year, typically it doesn’t mean much so the chance of precipitation is slim to none. However, temperatures will be somewhat below seasonal average.
May: This model continues trends during the month of May that we saw in April. Pressures will be lower than average along the west coast, resulting in the chance of above average rainfall and below average temperatures
May, June, July: This model doesn’t really move the needle either way for temperatures and rainfall over the next three months. being that we’re heading into the hot, dry season, it means little anyway.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally light for a time this morning, becoming out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph this afternoon and tonight. Gusts to 30 mph are possible, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere today. Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph possible in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms. Winds Tuesday night through Thursday will be generally at or less than 15 mph and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain Discussion: A developing cut off low off the southern California coast will move inland later tonight thorugh Tuesday night. Thunderstorms will become likely over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon, spreading into the Kern County mountains tonight. A developing southeast flow will favor the movement of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the foothills and possibly even out over the valley floor tonight through Tuesday night. The chance of measurable rain at any given location from late this afternoon through Tuesday night is roughly 50/50. Amounts of rain, if any, will range from nothing to upwards of a tenth of an inch. An isolated storm may produce locally more. By Wednesday, this system will be falling apart for a return to dry weather. Expect dry weather for the remainder of the week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.87, Parlier, 1.74, Arvin 1.87, Delano 1.72.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 75, Arvin 78, Delano 80 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 88/58 Record Temperatures: 107/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 296 +56 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .0
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.74, Monthly: .0
Average Temperature this Month 73.9. +0.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:40, sunset, 8:15. hours of daylight, 14:34
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 61 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 97 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 66 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 97 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 95 / 66 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 61 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 97 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1648 / 94 / 70 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 175 9.75 73 13.29 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 19.71 163 8.99 74 12.09 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.84 179 7.44 64 11.67 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 109 2.10 20 10.64 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 166 6.29 59 10.73 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.56 182 6.34 79 8.02 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.89 157 5.40 86 6.28 6.36
BISHOP T 13.66 313 4.75 109 4.37 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.08 62 M M 1.75 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.88 112 7.31 59 12.44 12.58
PASO ROBLES T 20.88 174 8.70 73 11.97 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.47 178 7.79 59 13.17 13.32
Next report: June 6 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.