June 8, 2023 ama
Summary: The low pressure system which resulted in just trace amounts of rain at most locations to as much as .50 to 1..00 in Tulare and Kern Counties has now passed to the east so we can take the chance of rain out of the forecast. The center of circulation at this hour is located in southeast Nevada. In the meantime, a trough of low pressure is now moving southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska this morning and will move into northern and central California Sunday afternoon. The southern portion of this trough will pinch off and form a new circulation pattern over northern and central California. Temperatures will warm today through Friday then will begin to fall back again Saturday through Monday as cooler air once again moves in aloft. Some models place the center of this new storm system over the Channel Islands west of LA, creating an easterly flow over central California. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again break out over the Sierra Nevada. With lower pressure aloft and an easterly flow, it will again be possible for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move off the Sierra Nevada towards the valley floor Saturday and Sunday nights. Models currently give a 12% to 20% of measurable rain. Keep in mind, the last storm was calling for a 15% to 20% chance of rain. The low will shift eastward Monday and Tuesday, allowing weak high pressure to begin to build in from the west Wednesday. Below average temperatures will continue through Wednesday of next week with temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Some models are suggesting yet another low moving into California beginning the 18.
Temperatures:
| Madera
84/58/86/60/85 |
Reedley
83/58/87/60/84 |
Dinuba
81/57/89/59/82 |
| Porterville
81/58/86/60/83 |
Lindsay
82/59/85/60/83 |
Delano
83/62/86/64/81 |
| Bakersfield
83/64/87/68/81 |
Taft
80/65/83/65/78 |
Arvin
83/63/86/66/81 |
| Lamont
84/62/86/61/81 |
Pixley
83/59/87/60/83 |
Tulare
80/57/85/58/82 |
| Woodlake
83/58/85//60/82 |
Hanford
83/59/86/60/81 |
Orosi
81/57/85/58/8- |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Chance of showers 57/81 |
Monday
Chance of showers 56/81 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 57/82 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 60/87 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 62/90 |
Two Week Outlook: June 14 through June 20 This model is showing a broad trough of low pressure over and along the west coast during this timeframe. This time of year, typically it doesn’t mean much so the chance of precipitation is slim to none. However, temperatures will be somewhat below seasonal average.
June: Of course, this time of year, 30 and 90 day outlooks are virtually useless as they’re essentially the same every year. Basically light all day and hot and light all night and warm. Essentially for June, near average temperatures and dry..
June, July, August: The 90 day summary outlook is the same this year as it is every year. Generally dry with somewhat above average temperatures. The monsoon season hasn’t begun yet, so we’ll start taking that more seriously down the road.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20mph today through Friday night. Winds Saturday will be mainly out of northwest at 10 to 20 with local gusts to 30, mainly on the west side. Saturday night through Sunday, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: The storm system which gave me migraines the past few days is finally far enough to the east to take the chance of precipitator out of the forecast. However, we now have to consider the next system which is currently moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California. Models are trending towards the southern portion of this trough pinching off, forming a new low just west of LA by Sunday. The counter clockwise circulation around this low will swing winds aloft to the east, favoring scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada once again. This activity could move out over the valley floor anytime from Saturday night through Monday. current modeling indicates a chance of measurable rain to be very low. Keep in mind, however that low chances of rain were also predicted with the previous system which generated some very heavy to localized thunderstorms. For now, we’ll maintain no more than a 20% chance of precipitation at any given location. expect dry weather Tuesday through next weekend.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.81, Parlier, 1.55, Arvin 1.68, Delano 1.61.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 74, Arvin 78, Delano 80 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 89/59 Record Temperatures: 108/47
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 312 +54 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.74, Monthly: .0
Average Temperature this Month 72.8 +0.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:40, sunset, 8:17. hours of daylight, 14:37
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 78 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 75 / 62 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 78 / 63 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 74 / 59 / 0.38 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 73 / 59 / T /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 57 / 0.48 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1645 / 72 / 58 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 55 / M /
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 74 13.31 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 19.71 163 8.99 74 12.11 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.84 178 7.44 64 11.69 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 109 2.10 20 10.67 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 166 6.29 58 10.76 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.58 182 6.34 79 8.03 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.12 10.26 163 5.40 86 6.28 6.36
BISHOP T 13.74 313 4.75 108 4.39 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 1.09 62 M M 1.76 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 112 7.31 59 12.45 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 174 8.70 73 11.98 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.83 181 7.79 59 13.17 13.32
Next report: June 9 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.