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Forecast

July 11, 2023 report

July 11, 2023

Summary: Temperatures on the valley floor are running 3 to 9 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The lower 90s of yesterday will be replaced by  upper 90s to even the lower 100s in the hot spots this afternoon. Upper level high pressure is centered near the New Mexico/Arizona border. Central California is on the far western side of the high. The clockwise flow around the high is maintaining a dry west/southwest flow over the western US. The center of circulation will move to a position right over California this weekend and into the early part of next week. models are still showing this to be a strong system. Blended model information for Fresno and Bakersfield this weekend indicates high temperatures near to even surpassing 110 Saturday through Monday. by midweek, the high will track slowly eastward, allowing temperatures to slowly decline. All of the usual summertime parameters for a prolonged heat wave are coming into focus. The marine layer has dropped down to 1,200 feet while the balloon sounding over Oakland pegs the freezing level at 16,300 feet. Some relief will arrive the middle of next week.

 

Forecast: Clear skies and hot through Friday. Clearing and excessively not Friday night through Tuesday.

                                                        

Temperatures:

Madera

99/61/100/62/102

Reedley

100/62/101/63/102

Dinuba

98/61/99/62/100

Porterville

99/62/100/63/101

Lindsay

98/61/100/62/101

Delano

100/64/101/64/102

Bakersfield

99/71/101/71/102

Taft

98/71/100/73/101

Aarvin

100/65/101/67/101

Lamont

101/66/101/66/102

Pixley

100/62/101/63/101

Tulare

97/61/99/63/100

Woodlake

98/60/99/62/100

Hanford

100/63/101/64/101

Orosi

98/61/99/62/100

 

Seven Day Forecast

Friday

Mostly clear

65/104

Saturday

Mostly clear

71/105

Sunday

Mostly clear

74/110

Monday

Mostly clear

76/112

Tuesday

Mostly clear

75/111

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 17 through July 23: This model indicates the typical summertime high will be over the Desert Southwest and California. This pattern will maintain above average temperatures with very dry conditions prevailing.

 

June:  Of course, this time of year, 30 and 90 day outlooks are virtually useless as they’re essentially the same every year. Basically, light all day and hot and dark all night and warm. Essentially for June, near average temperatures and dry.

 

June, July, August:  The 90 day summary outlook is the same this year as it is every year. Generally dry with somewhat above average temperatures. The monsoon season hasn’t begun yet, so we’ll start taking that more seriously down the road.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds during the late evening through the morning hours will generally be at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the afternoon and evening, winds will be generally at or less than  15 mph with locally stronger gusts through Friday.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week.

 

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 2.10, Parlier, 1.91, Arvin 2.11, Delano 1.77.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 79, Arvin 85, Delano 83 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 98/66  Record Temperatures: 114/52

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  725 +32 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  17.83, Monthly  .00

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 10.26, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 81..2 +0.8 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 5:50, sunset, 8:19.  hours of daylight, 14:31

NA=Not available

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L        

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  90 /  58 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  91 /  59 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  91 /  69 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  92 /  60 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  93 /  58 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  91 /  70 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  90 /  61 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  90 /  61 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   174    9.81    73    13.36    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.17   165    8.99    74    12.20    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.84   177    7.44    63    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.62   108    2.21    21    10.75    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   17.83   163    6.29    58    10.92    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   14.58   180    6.34    78     8.08     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   10.26   163    5.41    86     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   14.39   318    4.75   105     4.53     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    1.21    66       M     M     1.82     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   112    7.31    59    12.49    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.89   174    8.70    72    12.02    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   23.83   180    7.79    59    13.22    13.32

 

Next report: July 12 am

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.