July 15, 2023
Summary All the parameters in the atmosphere are such that they would lead us into a searing heat wave for the next 72 hours. Most locations on the valley floor are 3 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Above the valley floor, mountain locations are already excessively warm. Sandburg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was reporting 79 degrees as of 5:00am and Blue Canyon at 6,500 feet was 71 degrees. The latest balloon sounding above Oakland pegged the freezing level at 18,000 feet. Tomorrow and Sunday may be the hottest days of the summer so far with readings at many locations soaring to 110 or above. Strong upper level high pressure which yesterday was over Arizona is now directly above central California and will remain there through Sunday night, driving temperatures to at least near record values. The high will slowly begin to migrate eastward Monday, settling in over the Four Corners region again Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday through Saturday of next week will generally be in the 101 to 107 degree range which is definitely hot but at least a little less hot than readings expected this weekend. There is a minimal amount of monsoonal moisture as far west as extreme southern California, however this moisture will track westward underneath the high, maintaining very dry conditions in our region for the next week.
Forecast: Clear and extremely hot through Monday. mostly clear Monday night through Saturday and continued hot.
Temperatures:
Madera
108/74/112/78/110 |
reedley
108/72/110/74/108 |
Dinuba
107/71/110/75/108 |
Porterville
109/74/112/75/108 |
Lindsay
108/71/111/75/109 |
Delano
109/75/112/76/109 |
Bakersfield
109/82/113/83/111 |
Taft
108/84/112/84/109 |
Arvin
110/78/113/77/110 |
Lamont
109/77/113/78/111 |
Pixley
109/75/113/77/110 |
Tulare
107/73/110/75/108 |
Woodlake
107/72/111/75/108 |
Hanford
108/74/112/76/108 |
Orosi
107/71/110/74/107 |
Seven Day Forecast
Tuesday
Mostly clear 73/107 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 70/103 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 79/108 |
Friday
Mostly clear 68/104 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 67/104 |
Two Week Outlook: July 22 through July 28: This model shows a typical summer pattern with monsoonal moisture working its way into the desert southwest and possibly southern California. Expect near average temperatures and dry conditions but with a chance of isolated thunderstorms over he summit of the
Sierra Nevada.
July: Typically, this time of year there is absolutely nothing going on in the world of weather. Temperature forecasts are u main forecast challenge. For now, the usual dry conditions will prevail with temperatures near to marginally above average
July, August, September: The monsoon into the Desert Southwest and occasionally California is what we carefully watch this time of year, especially during August and September. This model is currently showing below average precipitation over Arizona and New Mexico. This indicates there will be less of a chance of the monsoon visiting California this summer. Temperature are expected to range above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late evening through the morning hours will generally be at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the afternoon and evening, winds will be generally at or less than 15 mph with locally stronger gusts through Wednesday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 2.15, Parlier, 1.93, Arvin 2.12, Delano 1.80.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 78, Arvin 84, Delano 82 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/67 Record Temperatures: 111/54
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 791 +34 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 81.2+0.6 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:52, Sunset, 8:17. hours of daylight, 14:26
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 100 / 63 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 100 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 102 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 63 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 99 / 73 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 100 / 63 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 98 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 8.99 74 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.84 177 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 163 6.29 58 10.93 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.58 180 6.34 78 8.08 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 14.39 316 4.75 104 4.56 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.21 66 M M 1.83 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 112 7.31 59 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 174 8.70 72 12.03 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 23.83 180 7.79 59 13.22 13.32
Next report: July 16 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.