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Forecast

July 31, 2023 report

 

July 31, 2023

Summary Upper level high pressure remains anchored over Texas and Oklahoma this morning and extends westward into southern California. The clockwise flow around the high continues to allow a southern flow California which rotates monsoonal moisture northward in the form of variable mid and high level clouds from time to time. This will continue through Tuesday. Today will be the 26th day in July of with a high temperature of 100 or more degrees. The first couple days in august will be in double digits as the high shifts a bit further east, allowing pressures aloft to weaken somewhat. Also, the marine layer which is currently 1,200 feet deep should deepen enough for a shallow push of marine air down the valley late Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lower temperatures into the mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Friday. Models still show upper level high pressure redeveloping over the Desert Southwest Friday through the weekend for our next warming trend with a return to triple digits over the weekend and into early next week.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday and not as hot. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday with a warming trend.

                                                        

Temperatures:

Madera

100/64/98/63/94

Reedley

101/65/98/63/94

Dinuba

100/63/93/61/93

Porterville

101/65/99/63/95

Lindsay

100/65/98/63/95

Delano

101/66/99/64/95

Bakersfield

102/73/100/69/96

Taft

99/73/95/68/91

Arvin

102/68/98/66/96

Lamont

101/67/98/65/95

Pixley

100/66/98/63/95

Tulare

100/64/97/62/93

Woodlake

100/64/97/62/94

Hanford

101/65/98/63/93

Orosi

99/64/97/62/94

 

Seven Day Forecast

Thursday

Mostly clear

61/95

Friday

Mostly clear

62/96

 

Saturday

Mostly clear

63/96

Sunday

Mostly clear

67/102

Monday

Mostly clear

69/105

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 7 through August 13: This model shows a weak trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest, extending southward to off the southern California coast. A weaker very of upper level high pressure will be over the Desert Southwest. This pattern should result in near average temperatures with the dry conditions continuing.

 

July:  Typically, this time of year there is absolutely nothing going on in the world of weather. Temperature forecasts are the main forecast challenge. For now, the usual dry conditions will prevail with temperatures near to marginally above average

 

July, August, September: The monsoon into the Desert Southwest and occasionally California is what we carefully watch this time of year, especially during August and September. This model is currently showing below average precipitation over Arizona and New Mexico. This indicates there will be less of a chance of the monsoon visiting California this summer. Temperatures are expected to range above average.

 

Wind Discussion:  During the late morning through the late evening hours, winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20 mph through Thursday. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with locally stronger gusts.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week.

 

Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 2.17, Parlier, 1.93, Arvin 2.09, Delano 1.81.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 82, Arvin 83, Delano 85 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 98/67  Record Temperatures: 114/53

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1137 +115 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  17.83, Monthly  .00

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 10.26, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 84.0 +2.7 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:05, Sunset, 8:05.  hours of daylight, 14:03

NA=Not available

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L        

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 / 101 /  65 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 101 /  59 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 102 /  69 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 101 /  62 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 104 /  62 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  99 /  87 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  97 /  62 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  96 /  63 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   174    9.81    73    13.36    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.17   165    9.00    74    12.20    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.86   178    7.44    63    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.62   108    2.21    21    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   17.83   163    6.29    57    10.94    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   14.58   180    6.34    78     8.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   10.26   163    5.41    86     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   14.52   312    4.85   104     4.66     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    1.21    64    0.00     0     1.90     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   112    7.31    58    12.50    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.89   173    8.70    72    12.08    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   23.83   180    7.79    59    13.24    13.32

 

 

Next report: August 1 am

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.