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Forecast

August 5, 2023 report

August 5, 2023

Summary Even by the standards of August, this is a very quiet weather pattern. a flat zone of upper level high pressure stretches from Texas to southern California. Central California is on the far northwest flank of the high, putting us under a dry southwest flow aloft. With slowly increasing pressure over central California, the marine layer has shrunk back down to 1,200 feet. Winds through Travis Air Force Base are southwest at just 12 mph, meaning no modified air will move down the valley for at least the next 72 hours. Temperatures will gradually warm through Monday as readings will rise into triple digit territory as early as tomorrow, peaking Monday, generally in the 100 to 105 degree range. Winds aloft will remain out of the west/southwest through Friday. Models for the coming weekend indicate south to southeast flow will develop which may tap into some monsoonal moisture for a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada beginning Saturday. Otherwise, the pattern will remain very dry.

 

Forecast Clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera

97/62/100/65/102

Reedley

98/63/100/65/102

Dinuba

96/62/99/64/102

Porterville

98/63/101/65/103

Lindsay

97/63/101/65/102

Delano

98/65/102/67/103

Bakersfield

99/72/102/75/104

Taft

97/73/100/76/102

Arvin

99/69/102/71/103

Lamont

99/68/102/72,/105

Pixley

97/63/100/67/103

Tulare

96/62/99/65/101

Woodlake

97/63/101/65/102

Hanford

98/64/101/66/103

Orosi

96/62/100/65/102

 

Seven Day Forecast

Tuesday

Mostly clear

63/99

Wednesday

Mostly clear

61/94

Thursday

Mostly clear

61/95

Friday

Mostly clear

63/96

Saturday

Mostly clear

67/98

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 12 through August 18 This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will become more dominant during this time frame. temperatures will be somewhat above average with dry conditions continuing.

 

August:  This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.

 

August, September, October: This  model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.

 

Wind Discussion:  During the late morning through the late evening hours, winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20 mph through Tuesday. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with locally stronger gusts.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week.

 

Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 2.01, Parlier, 1.84, Arvin 2.04, Delano 1.81.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 79, Arvin 82, Delano 82 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 98/66  Record Temperatures: 110/51

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1213 +110 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  17.83, Monthly  .00

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 10.26, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 78.4 -2.6 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:09, Sunset, 8:00.  hours of daylight, 13:54

NA=Not available

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L        

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  94 /  62 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  94 /  61 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  93 /  72 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  94 /  66 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  96 /  62 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  91 /  71 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  91 /  64 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  91 /  64 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   174    9.81    73    13.36    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.17   165    9.00    74    12.20    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.86   178    7.44    63    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.62   108    2.21    21    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   17.83   163    6.29    57    10.94    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   14.58   180    6.34    78     8.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   10.26   163    5.41    86     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   14.52   311    4.92   105     4.67     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    1.21    63    0.00     0     1.92     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   112    7.31    58    12.50    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.89   173    8.70    72    12.08    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   23.83   180    7.79    59    13.24    13.32

 

Next report: August 6 am

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.