August 11, 2023
Summary Remnants of tropical storm Eugene continue to wrap around a weak upper low hugging the central coast. This has added enough convection to the atmosphere to sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms even over the valley floor. I was watching doppler radar yesterday evening when a few isolated cells worked their way through the southwestern portion of the valley then up through western Kings County. A number of locations on the valley floor recorded trace amounts of rain. Santa Maria was nailed last night by an isolated thunderstorm, resulting in .22 being recorded. If any of my clients out there received measurable precipitation I would certainly appreciate knowing about it. The weather through next Thursday will be a bit tricky as models show a weak upper low remaining stationary right off the central coast with remnant moisture from Eugene circulating counter clockwise. There will be daily chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains and deserts. The flow aloft is right out of the south. It may turn southeasterly over the weekend. So it’s possible storms over the Sierra Nevada could drift out over the foothills each afternoon through Tuesday. The center of the low’s circulation is close enough for an isolated shower or thunderstorm could make it out over the valley floor. beginning Sunday, a wide zone of high pressure will stretch from Texas to off shore of the Pacific Northwest. This will result in a warming trend beginning Sunday through Wednesday. Readings in the 100 to 105 degree range can be expected Monday through Wednesday. Readings will begin to head south by Friday as a low approaches the coast of California.
Forecast Variable cloudiness with a slight chance of sprinkles this morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Monday with a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly near the foothills. Mostly clear Tuesday through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
92/62/94/64/99 |
Reedley
91/63/95/64/100 |
Dinuba
91/61/93/64/98 |
| Porterville
94/64/96/66/100 |
Lindsay
93/62/94/65/99 |
Delano
94/66/95/67/99 |
| Bakersfield
94/71/96/73/100 |
Taft
92/71/94/74/97 |
Arvin
95/68/96/70/100 |
| Lamont
93/68/94/69/99 |
Pixley
92/64/94/66/98 |
Tulare
92/61/93/65/98 |
| Woodlake
92/62/95/65/98 |
Hanford
92/64/95/66/99 |
Orosi
92/62/94/65/99 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 68/103 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 70/103 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 70/102 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 67/98 |
Friday
Mostly clear 63/95 |
Two Week Outlook: August 15 through August 24 This model points to hot weather over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with above average temperatures over the remainder of California. Expect a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today through this evening will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. During the night and morning hours winds will generally be at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain Discussion: A tricky little upper low is just off the central coast this morning. Moisture, which is moving counterclockwise around the low, are the remnants of once tropical storm Eugene. There will continue to be a slight risk of sprinkles or isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly near the mountains through Monday night as the low just sits off shore. Greatest risk will be over the foothills of the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The chance of measurable rain at any given location is around 10% or less. Still, tropical moisture interacting with an upper low in our vicinity makes me a bit nervous this time of year. We’ll continue to track it for you.
Next report: August 12 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.