August 12, 2023
Summary There was measurable rain on the valley floor yesterday morning. Both Hanford and Lemoore suffered through a deluge of .01. We do generally have some measurable rain during July and August, so this is no big surprise. The weak upper low has drifted slightly towards the west off the central coast. The counterclockwise circulation around the low is maintaining a southeast flow above central California. This will continue to move monsoonal moisture northwestward. Daytime heating should set off at least isolated thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains through Tuesday during the afternoons and evenings. For now, we’ll leave the forecast dry as the upper low is far enough to our west for active weather over the valley floor. beginning Sunday, upper level high pressure will expand to the west and northwest and will link up with another high off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. A warming trend will begin today and continue through Thursday. Expect readings in the 100 to 105 range Monday through Thursday. A low pressure system will approach the northern California coast Friday, lowering temperatures to near average next weekend. Some models are indicating a tropical system will move northward along the Baja coast later next week, possibly affecting the southern half of California next weekend. We’ll keep a close on this development as we approach the weekend.
Forecast Mostly clear through Tuesday with occasional high clouds and becoming hot. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
96/65/100/68/103 |
Reedley
97/67/100/68/103 |
Dinuba
95/66/97/67/102 |
| Porterville
98/66/101/69/103 |
Lindsay
97/64/100/67/102 |
Delano
97/68/100/70/104 |
| Bakersfield
98/74/100/75/104 |
Taft
96/74/98/76/101 |
Arvin
98/69/101/73/103 |
| Lamont
97/69/100/73/104 |
Pixley
96/67/98/69/103 |
Tulare
96/64/99/68/102 |
| Woodlake
96/65/100/68/102 |
Hanford
97/66/100/69/104 |
Orosi
96/64/99/68/101 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 68/103 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 70/104 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 70/102 |
Friday
Mostly clear 67/99 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 64/93 |
Two Week Outlook: August 17 through August 26 This model points to hot weather over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with above average temperatures over the remainder of California. Expect a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today through this evening will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. During the night and morning hours winds will generally be at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: For now, the chance of precipitation will be confined to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada with no rain on the valley floor. I want to keep a close eye on an area of disturbed weather south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has put out a notification that this will develop into a full blown storm over the next few days. They show it moving north/northwest parallel to the Baja, California coast. By Friday or Saturday of next week, some models show the center of circulation just southwest of San Diego with the remnants of the system moving into southern and central California. Since this feature isn’t even a named storm yet, we’ll keep the chance of rain out of the forecast, but I do want to watch this feature carefully during the upcoming week for possible trouble next weekend.
Next report: August 14 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.