August 14, 2023
Summary There are three main features that will govern our weather through Thursday. The first is a weak upper low parked southwest of Vandenburg which is continuing to result in a southeast flow above central California. This is dragging up remnants of former tropical storm Eugene and monsoonal moisture from the desert southwest. The position of the low is adding enough convection for daily chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and the mountains and deserts of southern California. It’s possible an isolated thunderstorm or two could find its way over the foothills or even over the eastern San Joaquin Valley. however, the chance for measurable rain remains remote. Feature 2 is a strong ridge of high pressure which extends from Texas and is linking up with another high off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This system will ensure hot weather through at least Thursday with most locations peaking in the 101 to 107 degree range. By late Friday, low pressure will be approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California, deepening the marine layer and allowing modified sea breeze to move down the valley. This will lower temperatures into double digits by this coming weekend. There is one wild card which deserves scrutiny this week. the hurricane center is showing the development of a tropical system southwest of Guatemala. This system is projected to move parallel to the coast to a position well to the southwest of San Diego by Saturday. From there, what is left over will move west further away from the coast, according to latest models. Earlier projections had shown a great deal of moisture moving into the southern half of California Sunday and Monday. however, the newer projections show the moisture moving to the west/southwest of California.
Forecast Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy and hot through Thursday. There will be a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly near the foothills, afternoons and evenings. Mostly clear Thursday night through Monday and cooler.
Temperatures:
| Madera
102/69/104/70/105 |
Reedley
104/70/104/71/105 |
Dinuba
102/69/103/70/104 |
| Porterville
103/69/104/69/104 |
Lindsay
102/68/104/70/104 |
Delano
105/72/105/72/105 |
| Bakersfield
104/78/105/80/106 |
Taft
101/78/102/79/102 |
Arvin
104/74/105/75/106 |
| Lamont
105/74/105/75/106 |
Pixley
103/70/104/72/104 |
Tulare
102/69/103/70/104 |
| Woodlake
103/69/104/70/104 |
Hanford
103/69/104/71/105 |
Orosi
102/68/103/69/103 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 69/102 |
Friday
Mostly clear 65/99 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 64/97 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 63/96 |
Monday
Mostly clear 61/91 |
Two Week Outlook: August 21 through August 27 This model points to hot weather over the Pacific Northwest and northern California with above average temperatures over the remainder of California. Expect a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today through this evening will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. During the night and morning hours winds will generally be at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain Discussion: There is a slight risk of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm through Thursday. The chance of measurable rain at any give location is less than 10%. As the week progresses, we will track a tropical system which currently is just a blob of moisture currently off the southwest coast of Guatemala. Models show this feature intensifying, eventually gaining hurricane status before moving northwest, eventually to a position off the southern Baja coastline by Friday. The storm will meet up with cooler waters, rapidly weakening. Current models show this system moving further west from there. The current configuration on models prevents moisture from entering California, however models this past weekend did. For now, we’ll keep any chance of rain out of the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but will be closely watching this pattern.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.85, Parlier, 1.64, Arvin 1.96, Delano 1.68.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Arvin 82, Delano 82 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 97/65 Record Temperatures: 112/54
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1312 +113 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: T
Average Temperature this Month 80.1 -0.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:16, Sunset, 7:50. hours of daylight, 13:37
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 94 / 67 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 66 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 97 / 75 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 73 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 101 / 68 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 101 / 88 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 98 / 67 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 9.00 74 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.86 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 163 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.59 180 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP T 14.72 314 5.63 120 4.69 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.22 63 1.70 88 1.94 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 112 7.31 58 12.51 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 15 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.