August 18, 2023
Summary The record amount of rainfall for Fresno for the month of August is .25 set in 1964. For Bakersfield, 1.18 fell in 1983. Both of these records will be in jeopardy by the time mighty hurricane Hilary moves into the Great Basin Monday night. Currently, Hilary is located a few hundred miles south of Cabo San Lucas. Hilary is currently a category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Hilary will start on a more northerly path later today. Landfall is expected Sunday along the northern Baja peninsula then it will enter southern California Monday morning at tropical storm strength, which is incredibly rare. The storm will move due north through eastern LA, moving northward through the southern Owens Valley before dumping into Nevada Monday night. The warning cone is slightly further east than earlier updates had indicated. It does not, however, appear to be far enough to the east to remove the chance of heavy rain from the forecast for the valley floor.
Latest high resolution models indicate as much as 3 to 6 inches of rain will be measured over the mountains an deserts of southern California, 2 to 4 inches over the Kern County mountains and deserts and the southern Sierra Nevada from Fresno County south. Rainfall amount of 1 to 1.50 inches is possible over the valley portion of Kern County with between .50 to 1.00 inch from Tulare County north. The chance of showers will begin late Saturday night as the first surge of tropical moisture enters the valley. The chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase by Sunday afternoon, becoming likely Sunday night through Monday evening. By sunrise Tuesday, what’s left of Hilary will be in Nevada and Idaho with lingering showers over the Sierra Nevada.
Dry weather with a warming trend will begin Tuesday afternoon, continuing through Friday of next week, although excessively hot weather is not anticipated.
Forecast Mostly clear through tonight. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a chance of showers Saturday night after midnight. A chance of showers Sunday, becoming likely by late afternoon with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Rain likely Sunday night through Monday evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times, especially in Kern County. A decreasing chance of rain Monday night. Partly cloudy and humid Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday with a warming trend.
Temperatures:
| Madera
98/65/96/71/87 |
Reedley
99/66/97/68/86 |
dinuba
97/64/97/70/86 |
| Porterville
100/67/99/71/87 |
Lindsay
100/68/98/71/86 |
Delano
100/68/99/72/87 |
| Bakersfield
102/73/100/78/85 |
Taft
98/73/97/77/80 |
Arvin
101/72/100/73/87 |
| Lamont
100/70/97/71/86 |
Pixley
99/66/97/71/87 |
Tulare
98/65/97/69/86 |
| Woodlake
98/66/97/70/85 |
Hanford
99/66/97/70/86 |
Orosi
97/64/97/69/85 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Rain likely 68/76 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 69/85 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 65/92 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 67/96 |
Friday
Mostly clear 66/95 |
Two Week Outlook: August 25 through August 31 This model is indicating a trough of low pressure will be along the west coast for much of the period, resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. The monsoon will continue but will be too far to the east to affect central California, so expect dry weather.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest later today at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to near 20 mph possible, mainly along the west side. Winds tonight and Saturday will continue mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. Winds Sunday and Monday will be erratic with winds possibly out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts possible.
Rain Discussion: The record amount of rainfall for Fresno for the month of August is .25 set in 1964. For Bakersfield, 1.18 fell in 1983. Both of these records will be in jeopardy by the time mighty hurricane Hilary moves into the Great Basin Monday night. Currently, Hilary is located a few hundred miles south of Cabo San Lucas. Hilary is currently a category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Hilary will start on a more northerly path later today. Landfall is expected Sunday along the northern Baja peninsula then it will enter southern California Monday morning at tropical storm strength, which is incredibly rare. The storm will move due north through eastern LA, moving northward through the southern Owens Valley before dumping into Nevada Monday night. The warning cone is slightly further east than earlier updates had indicated. It does not, however, appear to be far enough to the east to remove the chance of heavy rain from the forecast for the valley floor.
Latest high resolution models indicate as much as 3 to 6 inches of rain will be measured over the mountains an deserts of southern California, 2 to 4 inches over the Kern County mountains and deserts and the southern Sierra Nevada from Fresno County south. Rainfall amount of 1 to 1.50 inches is possible over the valley portion of Kern County with between .50 to 1.00 inch from Tulare County north. The chance of showers will begin late Saturday night as the first surge of tropical moisture enters the valley. The chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase by Sunday afternoon, becoming likely Sunday night through Monday evening. By sunrise Tuesday, what’s left of Hilary will be in Nevada and Idaho with lingering showers over the Sierra Nevada.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.89, Parlier, 1.65, Arvin 1.98, Delano 1.72.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 82, Arvin 82, Delano 82 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 96/65 Record Temperatures: 112/52
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1468 +164 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: T
Average Temperature this Month 82.9 +2.4 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:19, Sunset, 7:45. hours of daylight, 13:28
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 102 / 70 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 106 / 69 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 106 / 77 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 108 / 73 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 107 / 73 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 109 / 79 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 105 / 71 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 106 / 73 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 102 / 73 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 9.00 74 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.86 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 163 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.59 180 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP T 14.72 313 5.64 120 4.70 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.25 64 1.70 87 1.95 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.52 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 18 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.