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Forecast

August 26, 2023 report

August 26, 2023

Summary  Enough  modified marine air moved down the valley yesterday and overnight to keep temperatures in the low to mid 90s. There are two main features out there this morning. The first is a high center located over New Mexico and the second an upper low located over the Oregon/extreme northern California coast. The high over the desert southwest will build a bit further to the north and west beginning Monday for a minor warming trend. Hottest locations by Wednesday and Thursday will be hitting the century mark. However, that won’t last long, either. As we move into the first week of September the low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will move inland, allowing a good surge of marine air into the valley Monday. this will cool us down once again. By next weekend, we could see temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The current southwesterly flow aloft will become more westerly this week, ensuring dry weather and mostly clear skies. There is a low center several hundred miles to the south/southwest of the southern tip of Baja. It will become a named storm in the next 24 hours. However, the system is expected to move more westerly and have no impact on California.

 

Forecast Mostly clear skies through Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera

93/63/94/64/95

Reedley

94/64/94/64/95

Dinuba

92/62/93/63/94

Porterville

95/63/94/63/95

Lindsay

94/62/94/63/96

Delano

94/64/95/64/96

Bakersfield

94/69/94/68/95

Taft

91/69/90/69/92

Arvin

96/67/95/67/95

Lamont

96/68/95/67/95

Pixley

93/63/94/64/95

Tulare

93/62/93/63/94

Woodlake

93/63/94/63/95

Hanford

94/63/94/64/95

Orosi

93/62/93/64/94

 

Seven Day Forecast

Tuesday

Mostly clear

66/98

Wednesday

Mostly clear

65/99

Thursday

Mostly clear

66/100

Friday

Mostly clear

63/93

Saturday

Mostly clear

62/87

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 2 through September 8   This model shows a rather active monsoonal flow into the Desert Southwest and possibly California. This model shows above average precipitation over the Sierra Nevada but I’ll play the odds for now and leave the forecast dry for the valley floor. temperatures should be seasonal.

 

August:  This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.

 

August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly out of the northwest through Sunday at 8 to 15 mph. winds during the night and morning hours will be generally variable at 5 to 10 mph. winds Monday through Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 8 to 15 mph and generally at or below 5 to 10 mph nights and mornings.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions.

 

Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Upper Mid to upper 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.47, Parlier, 1.38, Arvin 1.60, Delano 1.44.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 79, Arvin 81, Delano 80 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 95/64  Record Temperatures: 108/52

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1544 +167 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  18.02, Monthly  .19

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 11.34, Monthly:  1.08

Average Temperature this Month 82.3 +1.9 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:26, Sunset, 7:35.  hours of daylight, 13:11

NA=Not available

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L        

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  93 /  64 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  95 /  68 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  96 /  68 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  96 /  64 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  94 /  69 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  93 /  65 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  95 /  64 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  91 /  62 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                      0.00   23.21   174    9.81    73    13.37    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   20.17   165    9.00    74    12.21    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   20.93   178    7.44    63    11.75    11.80

MADERA                        0.00   11.67   108    2.21    21    10.76    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   18.02   165    6.34    58    10.94    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00   15.06   186    6.36    79     8.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00   11.34   180    5.41    86     6.31     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00   16.60   352    5.64   119     4.72     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    3.47   175    1.89    95     1.98     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00   13.95   111    7.31    58    12.53    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   20.89   173    8.70    72    12.09    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   24.05   182    7.79    59    13.25    13.32

 

Next report: August 28

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.