August 28, 2023
Summary Water vapor satellite imagery well depicts the very dry air mass above California. Synoptically, there is a low pressure system spinning off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a high center over the Desert Southwest and southern California. Currently, a dry west/northwest flow is evident above central California. The freezing level stands at 17,000 feet, indicating there’s a warm bubble of subsiding air over central California. At the surface, the marine layer is just 1.100 feet, meaning cooling will have no help from the marine layer. As a result, temperatures will remain 3 to 5 degrees above average for the date. By Thursday, the low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will begin to move inland, deepening the marine layer, allowing it to surge inland beginning Friday. No weather will be associated with this change other than temperatures falling several degrees below average. We have a new tropical storm over the Pacific. Tropical storm Irwin is located several hundred miles to the west/southwest of Cabo San Lucas and will move in a westerly direction with no impact on California.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
96/62/96/62/95 |
Redley
98/61/98/62/96 |
Dinuba
96/61/97/62/96 |
| Porterville
97/63/97/63/97 |
Lindsay
97/61/97/62/98 |
Delano
98/65/98/67/97 |
| Bakersfield
98/69/97/70/97 |
Taft
95/70/95/69/93 |
Arvin
98/68/98/67/96 |
| Lamont
99/68/98/68/97 |
Pixley
96/63/96/63/95 |
Tulare
96/62/97/62/96 |
| Woodlake
96/61/96/62/95 |
Hanford
97/63/97/62/96 |
Orosi
96/62/96/92/95 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 65/96 |
Friday
Mostly clear 61/88 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 60/84 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 59/86 |
Monday
Mostly clear 59/94 |
Two Week Outlook: September 4 through September 10: This model shows a fairly substantial trough of low pressure along the west coast while a big high centers over the middle of the country. This will result in below average temperatures for central California with dry weather continuing.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly out of the northwest through Sunday at 8 to 15 mph. winds during the night and morning hours will be generally variable at 5 to 10 mph. winds through Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 8 to 15 mph and generally at or below 5 to 10 mph nights and mornings.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Upper Mid to upper 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.47, Parlier, 1.38, Arvin 1.60, Delano 1.44.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 79, Arvin 81, Delano 80 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 95/64 Record Temperatures: 108/52
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1544 +167 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .19
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: 1.08
Average Temperature this Month 82.3 +1.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:26, Sunset, 7:35. hours of daylight, 13:11
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 64 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 95 / 68 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 68 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 64 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 94 / 69 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 65 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 91 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 9.00 74 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.67 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 165 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 186 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 180 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.60 352 5.64 119 4.72 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.47 175 1.89 95 1.98 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.25 13.32
Next report: August 29
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.