October 6, 2023
Summary There are two high pressure systems governing our weather. The first is a strong upper high covering the eastern Pacific and the western 1/3 of the US. The center of this high is virtually right overhead. The second high is at the surface and is centered over the Great Basin. The current altimeter reading at Salt Lake City is 30.35 inches of mercury while at LAX it’s 29.92. this shows that a rather robust off shore flow is underway. The marine layer at Monterey is only 100 feet deep, meaning hot weather along the coast and well above average temperatures inland. The surface will weaken over the next 48 hours but it will be Sunday night before the high gives way to an approaching trough of low pressure. We can expect mid to upper 90s through Sunday followed by a major cool down beginning Monday as the trough moves inland through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Showers will spread over roughly the Northen 1 /3 of central California Monday and Monday night. A secondary wave will move inland to our north Wednesday, further cooling temperatures down. Readings will move from the mid to upper 90s this weekend to the low to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday, possibly cooling below the 80 degree mark Wednesday. A new high will build in from our west for our next warming trend.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 95/62/97/63/96 | Reedley 96/61/96/62/94 | Dinuba 95/62/96//62/94 |
| Porterville 95/63/96/63/95 | Lindsay 94/61/96/62/95 | Delano 95/63/97/63/95 |
| Bakersfield 97/66//98/68/97 | Taft 92/69/94/70/93 | Arvin 97/64/98/65/96 |
| Lamont 96/64/97/65/96 | Pixley 95/64/96/64/95 | Tulare 94/62/95/63/95 |
| Woodlake 95/61/97/62/94 | Hanford 96/63/96/62//95 | Orosi 94/61/95/62/94 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Partly cloudy 59/85 | Tuesday Partly cloudy 54/80 | Wednesday Partly cloudy 53/78 | Thursday Mostly clear 51/86 | Friday Mostly clear 53/89 |
Two Week Outlook: October 13 through October 19 This model shows the storm track will move through the Pacific Northwest,, clipping northern California from time to time. The chance of showers appears low with near average temperatures.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remans to be seen.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable at 8 to 15 mph through Monday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.02, Parlier, .94, Arvin 1.14, Delano 1.00.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier *, Arvin 75, Delano 70 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 83/55, Record Temperatures: 99/37
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2040 +221 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 67.8 -1.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:59. Sunset, 6:34. hours of daylight, 11:36
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 94 / 58 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 94 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 74 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 91 / 72 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 93 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 90 / 69 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 92 / 60 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 25 0.00 0 0.04 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 1500 0.00 0 0.01 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 450 0.00 0 0.04 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 25 0.00 0 0.04 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.03 13.32
Next report: October 7 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.