October 7, 2023
Summary
In the short term, all systems are go for two more days of Indian summer. Widespread mid to upper 90s will be commonplace both today and Sunday before a significant cooling trend begins Monday. The marine layer along the coast remains very shallow. The latest sounding at Ford Ord indicated a depth of 800 feet. That will rapidly change late Sunday and Sunday night as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west, displacing the current ridge of high pressure which is overhead. gusty northwesterly winds will move down the valley Sunday night and Monday, pulling modified marine air inland. Showers will spread over northern California down to a Monterey/Stanislaus County line. A few sprinkles could make it as far as Merced County, however the main impact will be much cooler temperatures as readings fall down well into the 80s Monday and mid to upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will follow Thursday and Friday for a minor warming trend. A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the Pacific Northwest and northern California over the weekend, acting as a moderator. Medium range models for next week point to a warming trend as a strong high builds over the eastern Pacific and northern California.
Forecast Mostly clear and very warm through Sunday. variable cloudiness Sunday night through Monday, much cooler and breezy. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 95/63/95/61/84 | Reedley 96/62/95/58/82 | Dinuba 94/61/94/59/83 |
| Porterville 96/62/95/60/84 | Lindsay 95/61/95/58/83 | Delano 97/63/96/63/84 |
| Bakersfield 97/67/96/64/86 | Taft 94//70/92/65/83 | Arvin 98/64/96/62/86 |
| Lamont 97/64/95/62/85 | Pixley 96/63/96/61/84 | Tulare 94/61/94/60/82 |
| Woodlake 95/63/95/60/82 | Hanford 96/63/96/60/83 | Orosi 94/61/94/59/82 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Partly cloudy 55/79 | Wednesday Partly cloudy 53/75 | Thursday Mostly clear 51/81 | Friday Mostly clear 52/84 | Saturday Mostly clear 54/79 |
Two Week Outlook: October 13 through October 19 This model shows the storm track will move through the Pacific Northwest,, clipping northern California from time to time. The Mostly chance of showers appears low with near average temperatures.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Sunday will be generally at or less than 12 mph. Winds Sunday night through Monday evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30mph will be possible, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties but locally elsewhere. Winds Tuesday will be generally out of the west/northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion. A weak trough of low pressure will be moving through our region Monday. any rainall will be confined to northern California. However, there is chance of sprinkles as far south as Merced County. Monday night and beyond will be dry. in fact, models show a strong high building late next week for a continuation of dry weather.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.02, Parlier, .90, Arvin 1.13, Delano .99.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier *, Arvin 75, Delano 70 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 83/55, Record Temperatures: 97/39
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2061 +233 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 70.3 +1.1. taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:00. Sunset, 6:32. hours of daylight, 11:35
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 57 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 94 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 95 / 66 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 58 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 93 / 75 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 91 / 72 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 94 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 17 0.00 0 0.06 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 750 0.00 0 0.02 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 257 0.00 0 0.07 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 17 0.00 0 0.06 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.05 13.32
Next report: October 9 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.