October 9, 2023
Summary The ridge of upper level high pressure which resulted in near record warmth over the weekend is breaking down as a trough of low pressure moves into northern California. The marine layer, which was just a few hundred feet thick over the weekend is now 2,800 feet deep and is surging into the valley. Satellite imagery depicts increasing clouds over the northern half of California while showers have spread as far south as Ukiah. As the trough pushes inland today, much cooler air will move in aloft. The combination of marine air and a much cooler air mass generally will cause temperatures to drop by 10 to 15 degrees today with further cooling Tuesday and Wednesday. Readings will tumble from the upper 90s Sunday to the low to mid 70s Wednesday. It’s possible the frontal system’s dynamics may be strong enough for sprinkles or scattered light showers from Merced County north this afternoon and Tuesday. The remainder of the valley will remain dry with periods of gusty northwesterly winds. A ridge of upper level high pressure will build in Wednesday night and Thursday for the beginning of a warming trend. A zonal, or west to east, pattern will evolve over the weekend, meaning the storm track will run west to east into the Pacific Northwest with dry conditions continuing. Next week, most models show a fairly strong high building over the Pacific and the western US for above average temperatures with dry conditions continuing.
Forecast Variable cloudiness through Tuesday night with much cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. There will be a minimal chance of a few light showers from Merced County north from this afternoon through Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday night on through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 82/55/78/52/74 | Reedley 85/56/78/52/75 | Dinuba 84/54/77/52/74 |
| Porterville 85/56//78/54/74 | Lindsay 84//54/78/52/75 | Delano 85/57/78/55/73 |
| Bakersfield 86/59/78/58/72 | Taft 83/60/74/58/70 | Arvin 87/57/78//57/70 |
| Lamont 86/58/79/55/71 | Pixley 85/55/79/52/74 | Tulare 83/54//77/51/73 |
| Woodlake 84/55/78/53/74 | Hanford 83/55/78/54/74 | Orosi 83/54/78/52/73 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Mostly clear 55/80 | Friday Mostly clear 50/84 | Saturday Mostly clear 51/83 | Sunday Mostly clear 52/83 | Monday Mostly clear 52/85 |
Two Week Outlook: October 16 through October 22 This model shows a large upper high covering the eastern Pacific and the western 1/3, resulting in dry conditions and above average temperatures.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion: Through Wednesday, there will be periods of winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to near 30 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be generally less than 12 mph.
Rain Discussion. From this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, there will be a minimal chance of sprinkles or a few light showers from Merced County north. If precipitation does occur, amounts will be no more than a few hundredths. The remainder of this week will be dry and if model are accurate, the rest of the week will be dry, as well.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.18, Parlier, 1.01, Arvin 1.25, Delano 1.13.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier *, Arvin 75, Delano 71 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 82/54, Record Temperatures: 98/39
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2089 +253 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 72.4 +3.5. taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:02. Sunset, 6:29. hours of daylight, 11:30
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 97 / 60 / T /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 99 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 66 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 60 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 99 / 65 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 97 / 68 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.10 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 13 0.00 0 0.08 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 500 0.00 0 0.03 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 200 0.00 0 0.09 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 11 0.00 0 0.09 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.07 13.32
Next report: October 10 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.