October 18, 2023
Summary Upper level high pressure is rapidly building in from the eastern Pacific Ocean. A warm bubble of air is currently above central California. The balloon sounding above Oakland stands at 16,700 feet. The marine layer along the coast is almost nonexistent with a depth of just 500 feet at Monterey. All this will lead us into a couple of late summer type days. Temperatures today will rise to near 90 at most locations with widespread low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday. The high is on the move, however, and will shift east of the Sierra Nevada by Saturday morning. This will allow a rapid cooling trend beginning Saturday. As the trough of low pressure digs into the region by next Saturday, the combination of much cooler weather aloft and a strong onshore flow will drop temperatures into the 70s Sunday through Tuesday. The chance for light showers is actually fairly high over the high country of the Sierra Nevada. Most models show dry conditions for the valley floor, but these systems don’t always cooperate so we’ll add a minimal chance of a few light showers to the forecast for Sunday and Monday, mainly near the foothills. Models diverge on the pattern for next Wednesday and beyond. Some show another low dropping southward. However, the main dynamics of this system may move into the Great Basin instead of through California. It will, though, keep temperatures marginally below average.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Saturday night and warmer. Variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday night with a slight chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday. partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 90/56/94/58/92 | Reedley 90//57/93/58/93 | Dinuba 89/55/92/57/92 |
| Porterville 90/58/95/59/94 | Lindsay 90/56/94/58/94 | Delano 91/58/95/60/95 |
| Bakersfield 91/62/95/65/94 | Taft 89/66/92/67/92 | Arvin 91/60/96/63/95 |
| Lamont 91/62/95/61/95 | Pixley 89/57/93/58/92 | Tulare 88/55/92/57/92 |
| Woodlake 89/54/93/57/92 | Hanford 90/57/94/58/93 | Orosi 89/57/93/58/92 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Mostly clear 53/82 | Sunday Light pm showers possible 51/74 | Monday Light showers possible 52/74 | Tuesday Partly cloudy 45/78 | Wednesday Mostly clear 46/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 25 through October 31 This model shows a trough of low pressure affecting most of the western US, lowering temperatures to near seasonal levels. There will also be at least some chance of precipitation.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature. winds Friday night will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Saturday will be mainly out of the west/northwest at 10 to 20 mph at times.
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through Saturday night. I want to add a minimal chance of light showers to the forecast for Sunday night and Monday. models show this to be a fairly dry system but there are strong dynamics associated with it so it’s possible some light showers could be squeezed out of the atmosphere. Dry weather will prevail from Monday night through the remainder of next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.09, Parlier, .89 , Arvin .99, Delano .93.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier *, Arvin 72, Delano 67 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 78/51, Record Temperatures: 95/36
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2119 +259 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 69.9 +2.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:10. Sunset, 6:17. hours of daylight, 11:10
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 85 / 52 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.27 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 4 0.00 0 0.24 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.16 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.21 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.19 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 167 0.00 0 0.09 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 90 T 0 0.20 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.07 29 T 0 0.24 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.21 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.19 13.32
Next report: October 19
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.