October 20, 2023
Summary Upper level high pressure has shifted eastward over the Great Basin this morning. Even so, the back side of the high will be overhead today for one more day of hot weather before a major pattern change begins Saturday. Already this morning, the marine layer has deepened to 1,500 feet, roughly a thousand feet deeper than 24 hours ago. This is due to a weak upper low just off shore which will begin to move in tonight and Saturday. This system is marked by some high clouds but little else. The surface flow, which has been off shore the past few days will become onshore. This will allow modified marine air to move down the valley beginning tonight. We look for a good 10 degree drop in temperatures Saturday and another six to eight degrees Sunday. Monday will be the coolest in this series with readings near 70. As a low drops southward into northern California Sunday, light showers will spread over the northern portion of the state. Most models place the low’s center of circulation over south central California Monday. light showers appear likely over the southern Sierra Nevada Sunday night and Monday with a chance of sprinkles or light showers over the valley floor. by Tuesday, the low will drop into Baja. A third system will move southward from the Pacific Northwest, however it looks like this system will move more into the Great Basin than California. It will, though, keep temperatures near to marginally below average.
Forecast Other than occasional high clouds it will be mostly clear through Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a minimal chance of sprinkles or light showers Sunday night and Monday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night Monday night and Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 93/56/81/52/75 | Reedley 93/56/83//52/75 | Dinuba 92/55/82/52/76 |
| Porterville 94/56/84/52/76 | Lindsay 93/56/84/51/75 | Delano 94/58/83/53/77 |
| Bakersfield 95/61//84/55/75 | Taft 92/65/80/57/73 | Arvin 95/60/84/56/76 |
| Lamont 96/61/85/56/77 | Pixley 93/57//83/53//76 | Tulare 92//56/81/51/75 |
| Woodlake 92/56/82/52/75 | Hanford 93/56/82//52/75 | Orosi 91/56/82/50/75 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Slight chance of showers 53/72 | Tuesday Partly cloudy 50/78 | Wednesday Mostly clear 51/73 | Thursday Partly cloudy 47/72 | Friday Mostly clear 43/74 |
Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1: This model indicates a large upper high will be over the eastern Pacific and western US. This will result in above average temperatures with very little chance of precipitation.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds today will be generally at or less than 10 mph today. Winds tonight through Saturday night will be mainly out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. Winds Saturday night through Monday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts possible.
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through Saturday night and most of Sunday. We will have a chance of sprinkles or scattered light showers Sunday night and Monday, mainly north of Fresno. Rainfall amounts will be mainly trace amounts upward to perhaps .10. Dry weather will return Monday night, continuing through next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .99, Parlier, .85 , Arvin 1.03, Delano .91.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier *, Arvin 72, Delano 68 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 77/50, Record Temperatures: 94/35
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2135 +274 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 70.2 +3.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 6:15. hours of daylight, 11:05
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 90 / 53 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 92 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 91 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 92 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 93 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 91 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 92 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 90 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.32 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.25 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 3 0.00 0 0.29 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.19 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.22 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 136 0.00 0 0.11 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 82 T 0 0.22 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.07 25 T 0 0.28 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.26 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.23 13.32
Next report: October 21
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.