November 4, 2023
Summary The Pacific storm track remains very active. The latest in a series of storms will move through the Pacific Northwest later today with periods of heavy rain and strong winds for parts of western Washington and Oregon. This system will affect only the northern counties of California. temperatures through Saturday will remain 8 to 10 degrees above average as we remain in a southerly flow. Our next overall pattern change will occur next Monday and Tuesday as a powerful Pacific storm batters the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The weaker portion of this trough will move through central California Monday night and Tuesday morning. Models show the rain line moving further south with the possibility of measurable rain all the way down to Kern County. North of Fresno County, light showers will become likely, mainly Monday night and Tuesday morning. A ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west beginning Tuesday night and will dominate our weather through Thursday night with dry weather. The next chance of precipitation will come in the form of a trough of low pressure which may split off shore Thursday night, forming a closed low right over central California Friday night into Saturday. Model information varies widely on the behavior of this system, but I do believe a chance of light showers is possible late Friday into Saturday. A strong ridge of high pressure is showing up for Saturday night and on through the first few days of the following week.
Forecast Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday morning. Increasing clouds Monday afternoon leading to a chance of light showers north of Kern Couunty Monday afternoon. Lighth showers will become likely north of Fresno County Monday night and Tuesday with a chance of light showers in the south valley. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday with patchy morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon leading to a chance of showers Friday night and Saturday.
Temperatures
| Madera 79/49/78/50/74 | Reedley 80/47/79/49/75 | Dinuba 78/46/79/48/74 |
| Porterville 81/46/78/50/74 | Lindsay 80/46/79/49/75 | Delano 80/50/79/51/75 |
| Bakersfield 82//54/80/55/75 | Taft 78/58/76/59/73 | Arvin 81/50/79/52/75 |
| Lamont 81/50/79/52/76 | Pixley 80/50/79/51/75 | Tulare 78/48/77/50/74 |
| Woodlake 79/48/78/50/74 | Hanford 80/48/78/52/75 | Orosi 78/49/78/50/73 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Chance of showers 52/68 | Wednesday Partly cloudy 40/66 | Thursday Mostly clear 38/67 | Friday PM showers possible 44/62 | Saturday Chance of showers 43/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 16 This model shows the storm track moving further south with a reasonable chance of precipitation during this period. Temperatures will be fairly close to average.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds will be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday morning. Winds late Sunday through Monday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with periods of lighter winds.
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through Monday morning. There’s a minimal chance of light showers Monday afternoon north of Fresno County. Light showers will be likely from Fresno County north with a chance of light showers all the way south into Kern County. The showers should be over by midday Tuesday. Rainfall amounts from Fresno County north should only add up to a tenth or two with just a few hundredths at best in the south valley. Dry weather will set up Tuesday morning and last through Friday morning. Our next chance of light showers shows up for late Friday through Saturday. Models vary on this system, however the majority consensus is this will be a light event, if it rains at all. Dry weather will return by Sunday and will last well into the following week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .77, Parlier, .70, Arvin .81, Delano .73.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier *, Arvin 64, Delano 60 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 70/46, Record Temperatures: 86/30
Heating Degree Days Season. 68 -38 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 59.5 +1.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 16 Arvin, 13 Belridge, 14 Shafter, 13 Stratford, 15 Delano, 13 Porterville, 0. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:26. Sunset, 5:58. hours of daylight, 10:33
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.19 24 0.27 34 0.80 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.42 67 0.31 49 0.63 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.16 22 0.37 51 0.73 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.02 4 0.17 33 0.51 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 T 0 0.14 22 0.63 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.51 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.30 94 0.27 84 0.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 47 0.01 3 0.38 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.13 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 32 0.24 35 0.69 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 8 0.63 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.01 2 0.63 13.32
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Next report: November 4/pm
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