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November 6, 2023/report

November 6, 2023                                                                     

Summary  Low pressure is centered just off the Washington coast this morning with a weak trough extending southward from the low into northern and central California. Doppler radar is depicting light showers as  far south as Fresno County with even a few sprinkles into northern Kings County. Even though these renegade showers are well in advance of the main trough of low pressure which is just off shore, the best chance of measurable precipitation will be tonight and Tuesday morning. Satellite imagery indicates this system is quite fragmented, meaning substantial rain is not likely. In fact, we’ll just call for a chance of light showers in the south valley tonight and early Tuesday with the likelihood of light showers from Fresno County north. The trough will still be overhead part of the day Tuesday so showers will continue over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Snow levels will be quite high. In fact, the latest balloon sounding over Oakland this morning pegged the freezing level at 11,400 feet, a weak ridge of upper level high pressure will begin to build into California Tuesday night and will dominate our weather through Thursday night. Another weak trough will move through Friday and Friday night before a stronger high begins to take over this coming weekend and into the first few days of next week.. the two week model continues to suggest a greater risk of rain will exist the 16th and 17th of this month.

Forecast  Variable cloudiness today with light showers likely from Fresno County north  with a chance of sprinkles in the south valley. Lighth showers will become likely and for a time Tuesday morning from Fresno County north with a chance of light showers south of Fresno County. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon and on through Monday of next week with patchy morning fog.     

Temperatures                            

Madera 75/51/66/40/65Reedley 76/51/66/41/65Dinuba 74/49/65/39/65
Porterville 77/51//67/40/65Lindsay 75/49/67/39/65Delano 76/51/67/42/66
Bakersfield 77/58/66/45/65Taft 73/56/62/46/62Arvin 77/52/68/42/65
Lamont 78/52/67/44/65Pixley 76/51/66/42/65Tulare 74/50/66/40/64
Woodlake 75/50/66//41/65Hanford 75/52/67/41/66Orosi 74/49/67/39/64

Seven Day Forecast

Thursday Mostly clear 37/68Friday Mostly clear 39/67Saturday Mostly clear 36/70Sunday Mostly clear 37/75  Monday Mostly clear 40/76  

Two Week Outlook:  November 22 through November 16  This model  shows the storm track moving further south with a reasonable chance of precipitation during this period. Temperatures will be fairly close to average.  

October:  This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.

October, November, December  This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.

Wind Discussion  Winds this morning will be light and variable then will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph this afternoon. Winds tonight through Tuesday night will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.   

Rain Discussion.  as of the time of this writing, sprinkles or isolated light showers were occurring from Kings County north. Most locations have received just trace amounts so far. The main trough of low pressure will push through tonight through early Tuesday, giving us our best chance of measurable rain. The chance of showers will end by midday Tuesday with the possible exception of the extreme south valley where drizzle will be possible against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi. Expect dry weather from Tuesday night through the remainder of the week. longer term, it appears our best chance of precipitation will occur around the 16 to 17 of November as a possible pattern change  pushes precipitation all the way  into southern California. This is the third model run in a row that has depicted unsettled weather during this time frame.  In the meantime, dry weather will continue.

Frost Discussion: A more seasonal air mass will push into central California tonight and Tuesday. Low temperatures beginning Wednesday and lasting through the rest of the week will be in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. It’s possible those low lying regions could tease with lower 30s, but no significant frost is anticipated. Longer range models aren’t showing a particularly cold pattern through at least the middle of the month.

Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .72, Parlier, .70, Arvin .82, Delano .74.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier *, Arvin 64, Delano 60 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 69/45,  Record Temperatures: 87/33

Heating  Degree Days Season.  70 -52 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  T, Monthly  .00

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .30, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 61.2 +3.2 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 20  Arvin, 17 Belridge, 15 Shafter, 19 Stratford, 16 Delano 19, Porterville, 0. Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 6:29.  Sunset, 4:56.  hours of daylight, 10:29

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather:                                                

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  80 /  59 /     T /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  81 /  54 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  80 /  58 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  82 /  53 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  81 /  50 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  83 /  56 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  80 /  53 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  81 /  50 /  0.00 /

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                         T    0.19    22    0.27    31     0.87    13.45

MODESTO                          T    0.42    62    0.31    46     0.68    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    0.16    20    0.37    46     0.80    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.02     4    0.17    31     0.55    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00       T     0    0.14    21     0.68    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00       T     0       T     0     0.55     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.30    86    0.27    77     0.35     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.18    46    0.01     3     0.39     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.13     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    0.22    29    0.24    32     0.75    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.05     7     0.68    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00       T     0    0.01     1     0.69    13.32

…………………………………………………………………………….

Next report:   November 6/pm                                                                                                                                         

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.